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Crude Oil Brent F Oct '19 (QAV19)

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Crude Oil Brent (F) Futures Market News and Commentary

Oil Prices Close Lower on Resumption of Saudi Crude Output and Bearish EIA Report

Oct WTI crude oil (CLV19) on Wednesday closed down by -1.23 (-2.07%), Nov Brent crude oil (CBX19) closed down by -0.95 (-1.47%), and Oct RBOB gasoline (RBV19) closed down -0.0174 (-1.04%). The energy complex fell Wednesday on the outlook for Saudi crude production to recover sooner than expected along with an unexpected increase in weekly EIA U.S. crude and gasoline inventories. Crude prices opened lower Wednesday after processing at Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil processing facility recovered to 41% of capacity or to 2 million bpd and Aramco said crude processing at Abqaiq will return to the pre-attack level of about 4.9 million bpd by the end of the month. Crude prices on Monday surged to 3-3/4 month highs after Saudi Arabia lost about half of its oil production output (i.e., 5 mln bpd of total 9.8 mln bpd production), representing about 5% of total world output, due to a drone/missile attack and fire at its key Abqaiq oil processing facility on Saturday. The energy complex remained on the defensive Wednesday after the EIA reported today that U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly climbed +1.058 million bbl, above expectations of a -2.0 million bbl draw. Also, EIA gasoline supplies unexpectedly rose +781,00 bbl, higher than expectations of -750,000 bbl. Crude prices recovered from their worst levels Wednesday after the Saudi Arabian Defense Ministry said that Saturday's attacks on Saudi oil facilities were "unquestionably sponsored by Iran." The remarks may lead to escalation of the crisis if Saudi Arabia and/or the U.S. retaliates against Iran for the attacks. Wednesday's global economic data was supportive for economic growth and energy demand after U.S. Aug housing starts jumped +12.3% to a 12-year high of 1.364 million, stronger than expectations of +5.0% to 1.250 million. Also, Aug building permits unexpectedly rose +7.7% to a 12-1/4 year high of 1.419 million, stronger than expectations of -1.3% to 1.300 million. In addition, Japanese trade data today showed Japan Aug exports fell -8.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of -10.0% y/y. Wednesday’s weekly EIA data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories as of Sep 13 were -0.8% below the seasonal 5-year average, gasoline inventories were +3.8% above the 5-year average, and distillate inventories were -5.6% below the 5-year average. U.S. crude production in the week ended Sep 13 was unchanged at 12.4 million bpd, just below the record high of 12.5 million bpd in the week of Aug 23.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Brent Crude Oil Financial Futures
Contract Size
1,000 barrels (42,000 gallons)
Tick Size
1 cent per barrel ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (Settles 1:30p.m.) CST
Exchange
NYMEX
Point Value
$1,000
Margin/Maintenance
$4,180/3,800
First Notice Date
10/01/19 (13 days)
Expiration Date
08/30/19 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Crude Oil Brent F Oct '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior F Contracts
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
55.88 +8.14%
on 08/07/19
65.43 -7.64%
on 07/31/19
-4.20 (-6.50%)
since 07/30/19
3-Month
55.88 +8.14%
on 08/07/19
67.25 -10.14%
on 07/11/19
-3.60 (-5.62%)
since 05/30/19
52-Week
52.04 +16.12%
on 12/24/18
82.71 -26.94%
on 10/05/18
-13.35 (-18.09%)
since 08/28/18

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 24% Sell with a Weakest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Soft. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 61.46
1st Resistance Point 60.95
Last Price 60.43s
1st Support Level 60.11
2nd Support Level 59.78

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52-Week High 82.71
Fibonacci 61.8% 70.99
Fibonacci 50% 67.38
Fibonacci 38.2% 63.76
Last Price 60.43s
52-Week Low 52.04

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InsideFutures Commentary

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