Are Beans Going to Trade in the Teens?

I asked if soybean futures can continue to rally in a February 20, 2026, Barchart article. I concluded that article with the following:

The weather across the fertile growing regions, Chinese U.S. soybean demand, and producer hedging over the coming weeks will determine whether the bullish trend continues into the 2026 crop year, beginning with the planting season in March and April.  

Nearby soybean futures were trading at $11.41 per bushel on February 19, 2026, below the technical resistance at $11.7250, the November 18, 2025, high. Over the past few weeks, nearby soybean futures have blown through technical resistance, reaching nearly $12.40 per bushel. Soybean futures remained below the teens (or $13 per bushel) until 2008, when they eclipsed that level. In 2012, soybean futures reached a record high of $17.89 per bushel, and in 2022, they rose to a lower high of $17.5925. 

A bullish trend hits a speed bump

After reaching a low of $9.8125 per bushel on August 6, 2025, the continuous soybean futures contract price has moved progressively higher. 

The daily continuous contract chart shows that at the most recent March 12, 2026, high of $12.3875 per bushel, soybean futures have rallied by 26.24%. While bean futures have pulled back to near $11.60 per bushel, the daily chart shows they remain in a bullish trend heading into the 2026 Northern Hemisphere crop year. 

The March WASDE report was only slightly bullish

The USDA released its March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report on March 10, 2026. The pre-2026 crop year WASDE report told the soybean market:

The USDA left U.S. ending stocks unchanged, while the global inventories were reduced due to lower stocks in India and Ukraine. They also left their soybean price projection unchanged from the previous month, while increasing their forecasts for soybean meal and oil prices. 

Teucrium’s Jake Hanley had the following take on soybeans from the March WASDE report:

Given the war in Iran that is impacting fertilizer supplies and crude oil prices, the key takeaway from Jake’s comments is “Soybean oil for biofuel got slashed by 800 million pounds to 14.0 billion, a notable demand signal worth watching.” The bottom line is that the longer the war with Iran continues and the longer the Strait of Hormuz is blocked from traditional traffic, the higher the demand for soybean-based biodiesel, which could provide substantial upside pressure to soybean demand and prices. 

The weather, trade, and geopolitical events are critical for soybean prices over the coming months

While the weather is always the critical factor going into a new crop year, trade policy under the Trump administration, and the wars in Ukraine and Iran will likely determine the path of least resistance of soybean and grain futures over the coming weeks and months.

Weather is always critical during the planting and growing seasons, and only Mother Nature knows if conditions will be optimal for another year of bumper crops. 

The war in Ukraine continues to rage. Ukraine is Europe’s breadbasket. Increased conflict in Ukraine and at Black Sea ports could push grain and oilseed prices higher over the coming months. Meanwhile, Iran poses a far more significant threat, as fertilizer shipment delays or worse could impact the size of the 2026 grain and oilseed crops. Moreover, since Middle Eastern crude oil is the primary ingredient in distillate fuels, attacks on refineries and shipments will likely increase demand for biodiesel, a soybean product. 

If the wars continue and Mother Nature does not provide ideal planting and growing conditions, a weak 2026 crop could cause agricultural commodity prices to soar, and soybeans are no exception.   

Open interest is rising- Farmers are hedging

Open interest is the total number of open long and short positions in a futures market. In the CBOT soybean futures market, the open interest metric has risen 23.5% from 776,599 contracts on December 30, 2025, to 959,188 contracts on March 24, 2026. Open interest rises as the new crop year approaches, driven by hedging. Rising soybean prices over the past months likely increased hedging demand for the 2026 crop. If prices continue to rise, expect the open interest metric to increase over the coming weeks. 

Beans in the teens depend on surprises

In the 1980s and 1990s, when I was involved in institutional commodity trading, every time soybeans rallied, many market participants would call for beans in the teens. After trading to a $12.90 per bushel high in 1973, traders anticipated an eventual rally that would take soybean prices into the teens. 

The quarterly chart shows that it took 35 years, until 2008, for beans to trade in the teens. Soybean futures rose to a record high of $17.89 in 2012, and a lower high of $17.5925 in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. The last time the beans were in the teens was in Q4 2023. 

The wars in Iran and Ukraine are the surprising and compelling factors that could push the beans into the teens in 2026.