Flutter Stock Could Be a Big Winner as Lawmakers Zero In on Prediction Markets. Should You Buy FLUT Here?

Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) is riding strong business momentum heading into 2026, but a new threat from Capitol Hill is forcing investors to rethink the company's fastest-growing opportunity.

The company recently reported strong 2025 results, growing the topline by 17% year-over-year (YoY). Moreover, EBITDA growth was higher at 21%. Its U.S. casino business continues to set records, and its FanDuel sportsbook remains the country's No. 1 operator. 

Yet a bipartisan piece of legislation targeting prediction markets, a segment Flutter is aggressively building out, introduces real uncertainty. The question for investors: Does the risk change the thesis for FLUT?

Flutter's Massive Prediction Markets Bet

To understand what's at stake, it helps to know why Flutter launched its FanDuel Predicts product in the first place.

Presently, only about 11% of Americans live in states where online casino gaming is legal. And roughly half the country can't access regulated online sports betting either. Prediction markets, which are financial contracts that let users wager on real-world outcomes, operate under federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight and are available in all 50 states. That made them an attractive workaround.

"The brilliant thing this year is that even in states like California, where we haven't got regulated online sports betting, we're going to make it… it's all incremental for us through FanDuel Predicts," Flutter CEO Jeremy Jackson said at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on March 4. 

Flutter has budgeted $200 million to $300 million in losses to build the product and expects it to be broadly contribution-positive by 2027.

New Bill Could Reshape Prediction Markets Landscape

That investment now faces a political headwind. Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah) introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, bipartisan legislation that would ban CFTC-registered platforms from listing contracts that closely resemble sports bets or casino-style games, according to a statement from Schiff's office.

Schiff argued that sports prediction contracts are essentially sports bets offered illegally across all 50 states, while the CFTC looks the other way. Curtis framed it as a states' rights issue, arguing that young people in Utah are being exposed to addictive gambling products that belong under state, not federal, control.

The scale of the market illustrates why lawmakers moved. A March Madness winner contract already logged more than $100 million in trading volume, while Super Bowl-related prediction market activity surpassed $1 billion in 2026, according to the statement.

Flutter noted that data from newly regulated Missouri, where one in 20 residents signed up for FanDuel within the first month of launch, confirms that users strongly prefer regulated sports betting over prediction markets when given the choice. That's a signal that the two products don't necessarily cannibalize each other.

Even if prediction markets get legislatively constrained, Flutter's underlying numbers are difficult to argue with.

Its U.S. iGaming business closed out Q4 with a 28% share of gross gaming revenue. The international portfolio is firing on multiple cylinders: Italy is hitting all-time highs through its Sisal and Snai brands, the Betnacional acquisition in Brazil is gaining traction, and the PokerStars transformation in Italy is outperforming. 

Flutter's Chief Financial Officer Rob Coldrake said adjusted free cash flow conversion was around 25% in 2025 and is expected to move into the low-to-mid 30s this year, with a longer-term target north of 40%. The company also has $300 million in planned cost reductions underway, partly driven by efficiency gains from artificial intelligence in its technology workforce.

One near-term catalyst worth watching: a sportsbook loyalty program launching in Q2 of 2026. Flutter credits a similar program in the casino for driving significant wallet-share gains. Management believes it will do the same for sports, and it could arrive just in time for the FIFA World Cup, which management views as a major customer acquisition event.

What Is the FLUT Stock Price Target?

Flutter is a global gambling giant with a diversified business, and its U.S. operations are growing fast. The prediction markets legislation is a real risk, but at this stage, it's a bill, not a law, and Flutter's legal team will undoubtedly be watching it closely.

Analysts tracking FLUT stock forecast free cash flow to increase from $410 million in 2025 to $3.10 billion in 2030. If the stock is priced at 15x forward FCF, it should more than double over the next four years. 

Out of the 29 analysts covering FLUT stock, 20 recommend “Strong Buy,” two recommend “Moderate Buy,” six recommend “Hold,” and one recommends “Strong Sell.” The average Flutter stock price target is $206.95, above the current price of about $109. 

For long-term investors, the core thesis remains intact. The loyalty program upgrade, the World Cup, iGaming expansion, and cost discipline all point in the same direction. The stock may face short-term volatility as the legislative debate plays out, but FLUT remains a compelling name for investors who believe in the long-term legalization of online gaming across more U.S. states.