Is Smurfit Westrock Stock Underperforming the Dow?

Dublin, Ireland-based Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America and internationally. The company has a market cap of $20.3 billion and produces containerboard and paperboard, packaging of corrugated containers, consumer packaging, and offers solid board, kraft paper, and graphic board, among others.

Companies with a market capitalization of $10 billion or more are typically referred to as "large-cap stocks." SW fits right into that category, with its market cap exceeding this threshold, reflecting its substantial size and influence in the packaging and containers industry. 

However, SW stock is down 26.3% from its 52-week high of $52.65 touched on Feb 12. Moreover, SW has risen 1.8% over the past three months and rallied the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI), which declined 5.6% during the same period.

Zooming out a little further, the scenario changes. Over the past 52 weeks, SW has declined 13.8%, lagging behind DOWI’s 8% gain. SW has been trading below its 200-day and 50-day moving averages since the start of this month.

On Feb. 11, SW stock rose 9.9% following the release of its mixed Q4 2025 earnings. The paper and packaging company’s revenue came in at $7.6 billion and missed the Street’s estimates. Moreover, its adjusted EPS for the quarter amounted to $0.34, also missing Wall Street estimates. However, investors' confidence was restored with a good forecast for the coming days. Smurfit Westrock expects to achieve an adjusted EBITDA CAGR of approximately 7% over the 2026 to 2030 period and a long-term net debt-to-EBITDA target below 2.0x.

When stacked against its peer, International Paper Company (IP), SW has outperformed. Over the past year, IP stock has declined 32.8%.

Additionally, sentiment on SW remains highly optimistic. Among the 17 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Strong Buy.” Its mean price target of $57.27 suggests 45.7% upside potential from current price levels.