Chart of the Day - July Wheat

The information and opinions expressed below are based on my analysis of price behavior and chart activity

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Sunday, March 22, 2026

July Wheat (Daily) 

On Friday, Wheat sagged lower, closing 12 ¼ cents lower at 607 ¼.  Thursday’s trade posted a Doji (almost) on the chart, certainly was an equilibrium day to my mind.  Friday’s close below Thursday’s low I do not view as friendly or just Friday profit taking. The settlement below the 5- and 10-day moving averages (blue/red) is also not a bullish sign, I think.  Those averages are at 6.10 1/8 and 6.10 5/8, respectively and they made a bearish crossover with Friday’s trade.   The 50- and 100-day averages (green, grey) are still in a bullish configuration, but well below the market, as is the 200-day average (purple) at 5.69 ¾ which is the closest moving average support that is on the chart above.  Stochastics (bottom sub-graph) are roughly mid-range but seem to be tracking lower.  In the short-term, it appears as if the Wheat market wants to retrace and trade lower.

Aggressive and well-margined traders may do well to consider short future positions.  Perhaps an entry near Friday’s settlement at 6.07 ¼ might work.  I would suggest a GTC Buy stop above the market in a sufficient quantity to reverse to the long side at 6.27 ¼, which would work out to a 20 cent or $1,000 risk per contract before your commissions/fees.  Look to exit that trade at 5.70 1/4 which is roughly where the long-term moving average support lies.  That would work out to a gain of 37 cents, or $1,850 per contract, before your commissions/fees.

 July Wheat (Weekly)

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Jefferson Fosse  Walsh Trading

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