Cattle Markets Rebound Sharply in Front of Cattle on Feed

If you would like to receive more information on the commodity markets, please use the link to join our email list  - SIgn Up Now

For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays. My next webinar will be Tuesday, March  24, 2026, at 3:00 pm.  Sean Lusk will be joining the webinar and will cover the grain markets. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.

Sign Up Now

This Friday’s trade bucked the recent trend of negative Friday price action as the markets rebounded nicely after Thursday’s breakdown in price. The recovery in June Live Cattle took price back to the upper end of the recent trading range in both the continuous and June contract charts. April Feeder Cattle closed its gap from Wednesday’s low at 351.95 to Thursday’s high at 351.60 at Friday’s high. The cattle markets ignored the weakness in the Equity markets and the grinding higher Crude Ol markets were ignored as trader’s likely balanced some positions in front of the Cattle on Feed report due after the close. The report summary is below. Traders continue to worry that consumers will reject beef at the grocery store and restaurants as retail prices continue higher and Equity markets sink due to the war with Iran as crude oil prices stay near 100.00. This has sent gasoline prices surging as stations raise prices during the conflict. This has led to the Fed talking about rate hikes and the 4-letter word known as recession gets talked up by the mainstream media. This is with the JBS strike in full bloom and slaughter numbers tanking this week likely the result of the strike. This could continue to take cutout prices higher and the packer trying to take advantage of the situation and attempt to sink cash prices paid to the producer, using the lower slaughter numbers as leverage, in my opinion. This combination could keep short-term pressure on futures prices and then help the packer use this to keep a lid on cash. Traders then see weaker cash and take futures down then everyone wonders which came first. The fear is beef consumption will fall as the war and the strike progresses forward, inflating prices and causing consumers to pull back during this time. Well, we have grilling season coming up and Easter will soon pass and the focus will be on the beef eating holidays. Cattle numbers remain tight and I believe if the strike lingers, the Federal government will get involved to mitigate the damage caused by both parties’ intransience. I think JBS would love a longer strike to try to break both the union and the producer. Consumers will, in my opinion, continue to eat beef and eliminate other habits if price continues higher. Plus, we have the 250^th anniversary of the US coming up and I expect a lot of fanfare to lead up to the 4^th of July. This will be an interesting spring and summer for sure… We’ll see!.... Feeder Cattle closed its gap at with its 352.70 high. It made the low at 347.725 and settlement came in at 351.175. The low was below the 8-DMA now at 348.625 and above the Thursday low at  347.025. If price falls below the key level at 350.20, we could come back and test these levels mentioned above. Support then comes in at the flattening 100-DMA now at 346.00. If Feeder cattle can hold settlement, it could see price test resistance at the declining 21-DMA now at 353.725. Resistance then comes in at 354.55. June Live Cattle made its high at 234.40. This was a new high for the week but it couldn’t sustain the level as the declining 21-DMA loomed just above the high at 234.75. The low came in at 231.35 which was just above the flat 100-DMA now at 231.025 and Thursday low at 231.00. Settlement was at 233.425. If Live Cattle can hold settlement, it could test resistance at the declining 21-DMA. Resistance then comes in at 235.625. A failure below the low could see price test support at the 100-DMA. Support then comes in at 230.425 and then 226.60.

The Feeder Cattle Index released today increased and is at 362.06 as of 03/19/2026 settlement.

Boxed beef cutouts were mixed as choice cutouts decreased 0.19 to 400.11 and select increased 0.49 to 392.94. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 7.17 and the load count was 84.

Friday’s estimated slaughter is 81,000, which is below last week’s 86,000 and last year’s 100,941. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 13,000, which is below last week’s 17,000 and last year’s 17,460. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 508,000, which is below last week’s 525,000 and last year’s 557,527.

The USDA report LM_Ct131 states So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been light to moderate on moderate demand in the Southern Plains. Compared to last weeks light test in the Texas Panhandle, live purchases have been steady to 1.00 lower at mostly 235.00. Compared to last week in Kansas, live purchases have been steady at 235.00. Negotiated cash trade has been moderate on moderate to good demand in Nebraska. Compared to last week in Nebraska, live purchases have been steady from 235.00- 236.00, mostly 235.00, and dressed purchase have been steady at 372.00. Negotiated cash trade has been light on moderate to good demand in the Western Cornbelt. Compared to last week, live purchases have been steady at mostly 235.00 and dressed purchases have been steady at mostly 372.00.

The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 232.00 – 236.00 and from 370.00 – 373.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.

United States Cattle on Feed Down Slightly

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.5 million head on March 1, 2026. The inventory was slightly below March 1, 2025.

 Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.61 million head, 4 percent above 2025. Net placements were 1.56 million head. During February, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 305,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 280,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 445,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 396,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 130,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 55,000 head.

 Marketings of fed cattle during February totaled 1.52 million head, 7 percent below 2025. Marketings were the second lowest for February since the series began in 1996. 

Other disappearance totaled 50,000 head during February, 17 percent below 2025.

**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**

Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

Direct: 312.957.4163

888.391.7894

Fax: 312.256.0109

bdicostanzo@walshtrading.com

www.walshtrading.com

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.​
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.​

All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall not be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.