Shootin' the Bull about influences

“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

3/20/2026

Live Cattle:

In my opinion, the ability of cattle futures to perform as they did this week, in the wake of mounting inflationary pressures on businesses and consumers alike, was significant.  As evident in the sale barns, cattlemen appear to be disregarding any aspect of beef demand or the supply of by continually placing themselves into a wider negative profit margin.  All of the above leading to, cattle prices "have" to go up, and really high to return current input costs.  The only question is, what if they don't?  Staying within the current price range won't return inputs.  Moving lower in price will cause significant losses.  Under these circumstances, the only way out appears to be as optimistic and bullish as you can possibly be, and make sure you have an offsetting derivative incase the price doesn't go up. Whether prices move higher or lower, I don't think you've seen anything yet. 

The influence of energy prices has impacted all commodity and financial markets. Interest rates have soared and equities starting a fledgling bear market.  Due to only a few being in control, if control is the right word, of the current events, there is no telling whether this is nearing an end, or again, you haven't seen anything yet.  As we go into the weekend, I lean more towards the; you haven't seen anything yet.  Grains are anticipated to remain firm, simply due to the influence of energy, with grains and oilseeds a component of energy.  I know this is short and not very informative.  The reason being is simple.  I don't know what will happen, but I know what can happen and that leads to a straight forward analysis of keep a good scotch under your wheels while pushing a heavy load up hill.