Chart of the Day - May Soybean Oil

The information and opinions expressed below are based on my analysis of price behavior and chart activity

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Wednesday, March 18, 2026

 May Soybean Oil (Daily) 

Today, May Bean Oil settled at 65.53, down 0.44 from Tuesday’s close.  Since the contract high on March 9^th, Bean Oil prices have been working their way lower.  Today’s activity did see a higher high and higher low, relative to yesterday.  Even though that’s typically bullish behavior, it does appear to me that this market is due for a retracement.  Bullish momentum has eroded and yesterday’s gain of 2.03 may have just been “Turnaround Tuesday” type of trade.

Overall, I think this market has been in an uptrend since the middle of January, when we saw the most recent closes back above the 50- and 100-day moving averages.   Before that, you may notice, the trend appeared to be flat, with prices bouncing between the 100- (grey) and 200-day (purple) moving averages.  The 5- and 10-day moving averages (blue/red) have made a bearish crossover today and are both above the market close at 66.06 and 66.15, respectively.  Those averages have been in a bullish configuration since February 4^th. This trend has been strong, as that bullish cross negated the bearish cross that occurred the day before, on February 3^rd.   The 50-day average (green, 58.12), the 100-day (grey, 54.65) and the 200-day (purple, 53.64) are all well below the market and still pointing higher.  Those averages may offer good support targets, should the market turn aggressively lower. Stochastics (bottom sub-graph) are mid-range and trending lower, since dropping out of an overbought condition on March 9-10.   I’m not turning into a long-term bear, but the technicals seem to be weakening and pointing toward lower prices.  Given how far the market has rallied, I think there’s a potential opportunity to the short side. 

The recent trend higher has been spurred (recently) by the war with Iran.  Before that happened, the market was already trending higher as traders are anticipating a new biofuel mandate from the US Gov’t.  That mandate has been delayed several times and I believe that it was leaked last week by a major newswire.   That might explain the limit down move on Monday in Bean Oil and nearby (old crop) Soybeans.  Allegedly. The “official” announcement may come at the end of next week on the 27^th, at a White House event.  I think this may be a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” type of setup.  Price volatility has certainly jumped higher over the past few weeks, as evidenced by the larger price swings happening with greater frequency than previously.

Aggressive and well-margined traders may do well to consider establishing short futures positions.  Perhaps a short entry at 66.00 would work well.  I would suggest a GTC Buy stop just above Monday’s high of 67.15, perhaps at 67.25.  If that Stop were hit, that would result in a loss of $750 per contract before your commissions/fees.  You may want to make that stop a reversal, as well, and flip that position back to the long side.  I don’t expect the signal to reverse, like it did in February, but it’s certainly possible. Look to exit the short position at 58.00.  Should that exit be triggered, that would result in a gain of $4,800 per contract, before your commissions/fees.

Traders that prefer options may do well to consider buying Puts.  May Bean Oil options expire in 37 days.  The 61.00 May Puts settled at 1.030 today, or $618 out-of-pocket.  I would suggest trying to buy those Puts for 1.000 or $600 per option, before your commissions/fees.  Place a GTC order to sell those Puts at 4.000.  If that order is triggered, that would result in a gain of $1,800 per option, before your commissions and fees.

May Soybean Oil (Weekly)

For the week, May Soybean Oil is down 1.91 from last Friday’s close.  The last two bars on the weekly chart, this week and last, both seem to show good buying interest.  I think you might see the long wicks at the bottom of those bars/candles.  The 5-week moving average (blue, 64.14) has acted as support this week.  That is the first time it’s been tested since the first week in February.  The 10-week (red, 59.57) has not been tested, since those weekly averages made a bullish crossover in mid-late January.  Both of those are still pointing higher and offering support.  As are the 50-week (green, 53.01) and the 100-week (grey, 48.35) and I don’t think those long-term trend averages are in play, just yet.  Stochastics (bottom sub-graph) are starting to tick out of overbought status, but are still at elevated levels.  I’ve added a Fibonacci retracement to the weekly chart.  I think that if this bearish retracement develops, the 50% (59.19) or 62% (56.65) should offer strong potential support. 

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Jefferson Fosse  Walsh Trading

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