Chart of the Day - June Live Cattle

The information and opinions expressed below are based on my analysis of price behavior and chart activity

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Tuesday, March 17, 2026

June Live Cattle (Daily) 

June Live Cattle closed at 233.70 today, gaining 1.825 from Monday.   After starting last week’s trade with a big gap down, prices have recovered well, I think. Monday started this week off by posting a bullish engulfment on the chart and “turnaround Tuesday” didn’t result in any significant weakness, or turnaround.  Prices did jump higher this morning, but the market did trade back to Monday’s high and found some support there.  Today’s close was above the 50-day moving average (green, 233.044) and posted the highest level since March 5^th.  The 5-and 10-day averages (blue/red) are both below the market and inclined toward higher prices.  Those averages are at 230.395 and 231.153, respectively. Those short-term averages are still, technically, in a bearish configuration, but 2 consecutive closes above them has me leaning back toward the bullish side. The 100-day average (grey, 225.989) has acted as support twice this month, most recently last week on Monday, with that large gap lower.  The 200-day average (purple, 223.421) is offering long-term support there and is below the low of the month.  Stochastics (bottom sub-graph) are pointing toward overbought, but haven’t gotten there yet, and are showing half of the indicator at the highest level since February 23^rd. 

On Friday of this week, the USDA will release their monthly Cattle on Feed report.  It’s early in the week, but the estimates that I’ve seen still show an anticipated decline in the US Cattle herd.  I would look for the whole herd to decline by another 2%, with Placements dropping by about 4% and Marketings by about 8%.  Basically, we have less Cattle and more people to feed.  Packer and Feedlot efficiencies are helping to boost carcass weights, but imports of beef are increasing this year and exports of US beef have been declining.  The border with Mexico remains closed to live animal imports and the New World Screwworm production facility in TX hasn’t progressed very far beyond the planning stage. The production facility in Metapa, MX won’t be operational until this summer, according to the USDA.  To my mind, the bullish market conditions remain intact.

The strike against the JBS plant in Colorado may be an interesting talking point, but I’m not sure that will have any effect on prices.  Locally around Greeley, there may be some supply disruptions for their finished products, but I don’t see this having an impact on nationwide prices or supply/demand as a whole.  I don’t think the strike was “surprise” and JBS has had plenty of notice, I think, to shift production or Cattle deliveries to other plants.  We’ll have to stay tuned to that situation.

Aggressive and well-margined traders may do well to consider establishing long futures positions in the June contract.  An entry near the 50-day moving average at 233.000 may work for you.  If you get filled at that price, I would suggest placing a GTC Sell Stop at 230.000. If that stop were to be hit, that would result in a loss of $3.00 or $1,200, per contract, before your commissions/fees.  Look to exit that long position at 243.000, just a little shy of the contract high from last October.  If that target is hit, that would result in a gain of $10.000, or $4,000 per contract, before your commissions/fees. 

Less aggressive traders, or those that prefer options may do well to consider Call options on the June contract.  June options expire in 80 days.  The 240/250 Call Spread closed at 2.075 today.  I would suggest trying to buy that Call Spread at 2.00, or $800 out of pocket, before your commissions/fees.   Place a GTC order to exit that option at 3x what you paid for it, or 6.00.  Should that order get filled, that would result in a gain of 4.000 per spread, or $1,600 before your commissions/fees.

June Live Cattle (Weekly)

So far this week, the June Live Cattle contract has gained 4.750.  The weekly chart above shows 3 consecutive (so far) bullish, or green bars, which I think is supportive.  Looking back over the chart, you may notice that small breakdown last March-April.  Prices got weak in, roughly, the same period of time last year before starting a move higher that culminated in October of last year. Will this year result in a repeat of a move like that? 

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Jefferson Fosse  Walsh Trading

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