Bitcoin Recovery Faces Critical Test At $74K–$80K Resistance

Bitcoin has been staging a recovery in recent sessions, but from an Elliott Wave perspective the structure still appears corrective rather than impulsive. While the short-term momentum has improved, the broader technical picture suggests the rally may still be part of a larger corrective phase within the overall market structure. Traders should therefore remain cautious as price approaches a major resistance zone between $74,000 and $80,000, which could determine the next significant move.

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin’s rebound continues to resemble an ABC corrective rally rather than the start of a new impulsive bullish cycle.

Within Elliott Wave theory, this structure could represent either:

• Wave B of a larger correction, or
• Wave 4 within a broader bearish sequence

Both scenarios imply that the current recovery may only be temporary before another downside move unfolds.

The key characteristics supporting the corrective interpretation include:

• Overlapping price action, typical for corrective waves
• Lack of strong impulsive acceleration
• Recovery occurring after a clear decline rather than from a long consolidation base

As long as the rally remains below the $80K region, the probability remains higher that the market is still forming a corrective recovery within a larger bearish cycle.

Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe, the structure becomes clearer. The market appears to be progressing through wave C of the ABC correction.

Wave C is often the final leg of a corrective move and can sometimes develop into ending diagonal or wedge patterns, especially when momentum starts to weaken as the move progresses.

Currently, price action suggests the potential development of a rising wedge pattern, which typically signals:

• Weakening bullish momentum
• Higher probability of a bearish reversal once the pattern completes

If the wedge structure completes near resistance, it could act as a trigger point for the next downside move.

However, a strong breakout above the $80,000 area would invalidate the near-term bearish outlook and suggest that Bitcoin is in a larger, higher-degree wave B corrective recovery.

For a detailed view and more analysis like this, you can watch below our latest recording of a live webinar streamed on March 16: