
The soy market was trading with 11+ cent gains going into the report, and is working with 7 to 11 cent midday losses after the initial reaction. Soymmeal is still above $500/ton in March, though the other futures are off their highs on $4.60 to $6/ton gains. BO futures turned south and are now down triple digits. The projected cash prices were raised by 25 cents in beans to $13.25, 2 cents in BO to 68 cents/lb, and $10 for meal to $420/ton.
The March WASDE data showed a 40 mbu soybean export increase to 2.09 bbu. That was reflected in a 40 mbu tighter carryout of 285. The average pre-trade estimate was to see a 46 mbu to 279 mbu.
Despite the domestic export boost, USDA trimmed global soy trade by 6.4 MMT to 158.63 MMT. That upped the U.S. market share by 2% points to 35.85%. Argentina and Brazil were each trimmed on a lighter production figure. For global soy stocks, USDA went with 89.96 MMT. That was just above the average trade guess and was 2.87 MMT tighter than Feb.
South American production was cut a total of 9.5 MMT. Brazil was cut by 7 MMT, while the trade was ready for a 6.9 MTM cut on average. Argentina was cut by 1.5 MMT to 43.5, compared to the average trade guess of 43. Paraguay was also cut by another 1 MMT to just 5.3 MMT – a 10-yr low for them.
May 22 Soybeans are at $16.90, up 1/4 cent,
Nearby Cash is at $16.32 3/4, up 1 1/8 cents,
Jul 22 Soybeans are at $16.60 1/4, up 4 1/2 cents,
Nov 22 Soybeans are at $14.76, up 2 3/4 cents,
New Crop Cash is at $14.24 7/8, up 1 1/4 cents,