Shootin' the Bull about Warning's from the CME

“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

3/13/2026

Live Cattle:

In my opinion, you would think there would be a chapter, if not a book, to write about this week's price action. There is not though because I believe that all markets are currently hinged to the oil market.  The oil market is dominated by the current actions being taken by President Trump.  No amount of release of the SPR's would do any good, as there is no increase in refining capacity.  I believe this line of thinking caused Terry Duffy, CEO of the CME Group to make this statement: He stated that any attempt by the Trump administration to intervene in oil futures/derivatives markets to suppress or lower crude prices amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel war with Iran would erode investor confidence in free market pricing for critical commodities like oil. This could lead to a “biblical disaster,” as markets “do not like it when governments intervene in pricing.”  This comment helps to add credibility to the thought that prices of all commodities are being impacted by the sharp movement in energy prices.  If you manipulate one, you are manipulating them all.  

Cattlemen have more on their plate than in a very long time.  As the production cycle turns, even at a snail's pace, cattle today are at the top end of a historical price range and all futures contracts are discounted, if not severely in some contract months.  Combined with sharply higher input costs, for which no way to anticipate a reversal of without Presidential actions reversing the course of current military operations, cattlemen and futures traders alike started selling this week.  New lows from the middle of February highs, which happened to correlate to the Moore Research seasonality, leads me to continue to follow it with expectations of the decline terminating at the first of May with a downside target for May feeder cattle futures at $323.55.  Bonds took off 5 points from the highs made two weeks ago, sending short- and long-term rates soaring.  Energy closed the week at new closing highs and not far from last Sunday evening's contract high.  If the air and sea campaign are nearing an end, and now with a Marine expeditionary group on the way, this current event has great potential to last longer than we may imagine.  The short side of this is that when or if there is a resolve, prices that have been impacted by the rise in oil price will be anticipated to reverse as well.   Farmers were urged to lock in new crop beans with an $11.50 put option this week that at times would have floored portions of this year's sales at or just under $11.00.  For the near $.50 premium, it frees soybean farmers up to either use the floor for future transactions or can see how high beans go before booking them with a $.50 haircut from the options premium.  Corn is different because gasoline is not participating to the extent diesel fuel is.  As military operations have depleted diesel fuel supplies, at the same time farmers are expected to plant 180 million acres plus of corn and beans; the fuel situation is about to get really interesting.  

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