Aug ’26 SOYBEANS – MAY ’26 CORN SPREAD (ZSQ26-ZCK26) - WALSH PURE SPREADER

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RICH MORAN                                                                                                       3/10/2026

Aug ’26 SOYBEANS – MAY ’26 CORN SPREAD (ZSQ26-ZCK26)

I have recently written about the very disappointing cotton market.  People have almost given up on even talking about trading cotton.  As I had mentioned, The National Cotton Council (NCC) recently released its Annual Early Season Planting Intention Survey. According to the survey, at this point, U.S. growers intend on planting about 3.2% less acres of cotton this year. This is a result of the current low price of cotton and the fact that the current margins can be better for growers in other crops.  Soybeans, for example, are simply less expensive to plant.  I believe that if cotton acreage is turned into soybean acreage, it may help the price of cotton.  At the same time, this fall’s soybean harvest may end out being plentiful, possibly bringing down the price of soybeans.  There are obviously other factors such as weather that come into play. For this reason, I like the idea of getting short this falls soybean market, more specifically August (ZSQ26) against getting long May corn (ZCK26), the current front month corn contract (ZSQ26-ZCK26).

ZSQ26-ZCK26 (AUG ’26 SOYBEAN - MAY ’26 CORN SPREAD) has been climbing from a price of about 660 in early February to its current 52-week high settlement of 748.  It has been hovering above the 14-day and 21-day moving averages this entire time.  I think we should be looking to get short, but not until it trades below and settles below these moving averages.  When it does, I think it might be a good place to get short this spread with a stop to exit the trade just above the 52-week high.

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Following up on still active past trade suggestions:

1/23/2026:  KCN26-KCU26 (JULY-SEPT ’26 COFFEE SPREAD)

Today’s Settlement: 4.95,  14 Day Moving Average: 4.55,  21 Day Moving Average: 4.70

**** On 3/5/25 – This spread traded down to 4.85, so we are long at 4.95. I suggest when the market reopens sell the spread at 6.45 or better.  If you do not get filled on the opening, leave a resting offer in at 6.45.  If it goes back down to 4.95 before that, get out for a scratch at 4.95.  I hate to turn a winner into a loser.

**** Today (3/4/25) – KCN26-KCU26 traded and settled above both the 14-day and 21-day moving averages (please see below).  I am suggesting that when the market re-opens, try to buy this spread at 4.95 (today’s settlement) or better. We can pick our exact exit points when and if we are able to buy this spread, but if you are able to get long this spread, I suggest you exit the trade if it trades down to 3.50.

JULY-SEPT ’26 COFFEE SPREAD (KCN26-KCU26) has been hovering below the 14-day and 21-day moving averages since the start of its recent downward trend that began on 11/6/25.  This spread started to stabilize at the beginning of this year at around 6.00.  As this started to happen, the chart naturally began to flirt with both of these moving averages.

Brazilian coffee exports are down.  This could help explain the recent halt in the bearish move in the spread.  Also, drier weather in Brazil seems to be having the same effect on things.

I am suggesting that if KCN26-KCU26 trades above and settles above both the 14-day and the 21-day moving averages, we should try getting long this spread with a short stop just below the 52-week low.  We can choose our exact exit points when and if we are able to put this trade on.

•  1/14/2026 ZWK26-ZWN26 (MAY-JULY ’26 Wheat Spread)

Today’s Settlement: -9½,  Long at -11

**** Today (3/10/26) – This spread traded down to -11 so we were stopped out (on paper) at -11 for a scratch plus fees and commissions.

**** On 2/13/26 – We now have a nice lead on this spread.  I hate turning a winner into a loser so I am suggesting to move our stop to -11 for a scratch. 

We are now Risking a scratch (price of -11) to make 7½ cents(price of -3½) or $396 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.

**** On 1/29/26: ZWK26-ZWN26 traded -11¼, so we are long (on paper) at -11.                             Risk 2½ cents (price of -13½) or $125.00 Per Spread to make 7½ cents (price of -3½) or 375.00 Per Spread plus fees and commissions.

**** On 1/27/26: “ZWK26-ZWN26 traded and settled above both the 14-day and 21-day moving averages (please see below).  I am suggesting to try to buy this spread at -11 or better.” 

I am suggesting that if we can trade above and settle above both the 14-day and the 21-day moving averages, we should try to get long this spread.  We can pick our exact exit points when and if we are able to put this trade on.

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Rich Moran

Senior Commodities Broker

RMoran@walshtrading.com

Direct: (312)985-0298 

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