Soybeans
May ‘26
1201 ¾, +22 ½
14-day high: 1215 ¼
14-day low: 1149 ½
Soybeans rallied hard again today and are looking very strong technically, considering the failed double-top and prices trading above the 14, 21, and 50-day moving averages. This week, other than today, soybeans have consistently been weaker in the morning before reversing higher in the afternoon and showing strength in the overnight session. Open interest was up 7k contracts yesterday, while volume was up 76k. Soybeans have support at 1181 and 1170. Soybean oil has had an impressive rally so far in 2026 but may see a sell-off when the White House finalizes biofuel blending rates, which is expected by the end of March. I recommend buying soybeans when they’re lower, or soybean oil on a pullback for now. I still think soybeans can rally another 20-30 cents. For the longer-term, I like buying put spreads in the August contract. Acreage is expected to increase big-time, 4-5 million acres, and soybean stocks are through the roof globally and domestically. Last Friday’s COT showed managed money, with a huge 184k long position after adding 20k contracts. This Friday’s report showed funds increasing their long position to 188k contracts.
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Soybean Oil hit my target at 66 cent target today. Below is my article on soybean oil, written in December.
Is Soybean Oil Getting Ready For a Major Move
Corn
May ‘26
460 ¾, +7 ¼
14-day high: 462
14-day low: 424
Corn is trading back above the level seen prior to the sell-off following the January WASDE report, when the USDA increased harvested acres by 1.3 million acres, and December corn is at a 21-month high. May corn made a high at 462 today. Flash sales and higher crude oil prices have supported corn. The grains have, no doubt, seen some bigger money flows coming in and some war premium with higher diesel and fertilizer prices. Corn is going to be a lot more expensive to plant relative to beans and should benefit from lower acreage numbers. It's too early now, but soon, buying corn and selling soybeans should be a great trade. The Prospective Plantings report will be released at the end of the month. Corn has resistance at 477. Support is at 454.
Wheat
May ‘26
618 ¼, +34 ½
14-day high: 618 ½
14-day low: 535
After consolidating for months, wheat is rallying hard out of its base back over 600. Open interest was up over 10k contracts yesterday. The political grain has ignored fundamentals and rallied due to inflation, with short covering adding fuel to the move. Global shipping risks and the potential need for grain stockpiling are driving up prices. There is also some weather premium likely being added from damage in the EU and Black Sea, as well as drought in the Plains. Wheat is trading well above the major moving averages. Support for May wheat is at 600 and 589, while resistance is at 625.
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Consider the following opportunities:
AUGUST ’26 SOYBEANS 1197 ¼
BUY 1 AUGUST’26 1150 PUT 33 5/8
SELL 1 AUGUST’26 1100 PUT 17
PRICE: 16 5/8
$831.25/TRADE PACKAGE, PLUS FEES AND COMMISSIONS.
AUGUST’26 SOYBEAN OPTIONS EXPIRE 7/24/26 (140 DAYS)
MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED
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BUY 1 AUGUST’26 1150 PUT 33 5/8
SELL 1 AUGUST’26 1050 PUT 7 5/8
PRICE: 26
$1,300.00/TRADE PACKAGE, PLUS FEES AND COMMISSIONS.
AUGUST’26 SOYBEAN OPTIONS EXPIRE 7/24/26 (140 DAYS)
MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED
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BUY 1 AUGUST’26 1130 PUT 26
SELL 1 AUGUST’26 1080 PUT 12 3/8
PRICE: 13 5/8
$681.25/TRADE PACKAGE, PLUS FEES AND COMMISSIONS.
AUGUST’26 SOYBEAN OPTIONS EXPIRE 7/24/26 (140 DAYS)
MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED
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BUY 1 AUGUST’26 1130 PUT 26
SELL 1 AUGUST’26 1030 PUT 5 ½
PRICE: 20 ½
$1,025.00/TRADE PACKAGE, PLUS FEES AND COMMISSIONS.
AUGUST’26 SOYBEAN OPTIONS EXPIRE 7/24/26 (140 DAYS)
MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED
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BUY 1 AUGUST’26 1120 PUT 22 ¾
SELL 1 AUGUST’26 1070 PUT 10 ½
PRICE: 12 ¼
$612.50/TRADE PACKAGE, PLUS FEES AND COMMISSIONS.
AUGUST’26 SOYBEAN OPTIONS EXPIRE 7/24/26 (140 DAYS)
MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED
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BUY 1 AUGUST’26 1120 PUT 22 ¾
SELL 1 AUGUST’26 1020 PUT 4 5/8
PRICE: 18 1/8
$906.25/TRADE PACKAGE, PLUS FEES AND COMMISSIONS.
AUGUST’26 SOYBEAN OPTIONS EXPIRE 7/24/26 (140 DAYS)
MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED
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BUY 1 AUGUST’26 1100 PUT 17
SELL 1 AUGUST’26 1050 PUT 7 5/8
PRICE: 9 3/8
$468.75/TRADE PACKAGE, PLUS FEES AND COMMISSIONS.
AUGUST’26 SOYBEAN OPTIONS EXPIRE 7/24/26 (140 DAYS)
MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED
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BUY 1 AUGUST’26 1100 PUT 17
SELL 1 AUGUST’26 1000 PUT 3 ½
PRICE: 13 ½
$675.00/TRADE PACKAGE, PLUS FEES AND COMMISSIONS.
AUGUST’26 SOYBEAN OPTIONS EXPIRE 7/24/26 (140 DAYS)
MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED
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BUY 1 AUGUST’26 1080 PUT 12 3/8
SELL 1 AUGUST’26 1030 PUT 5 ½
PRICE: 6 7/8
$343.75/TRADE PACKAGE, PLUS FEES AND COMMISSIONS.
AUGUST’26 SOYBEAN OPTIONS EXPIRE 7/24/26 (140 DAYS)
MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED
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BUY 1 AUGUST’26 1080 PUT 12 3/8
SELL 1 AUGUST’26 980 PUT 2 5/8
PRICE: 9 ¾
$487.50/TRADE PACKAGE, PLUS FEES AND COMMISSIONS.
AUGUST’26 SOYBEAN OPTIONS EXPIRE 7/24/26 (140 DAYS)
MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED
You can also buy August 920 puts for about 2 cents, which could 4x on a break. Contact me for other ideas or a hedge plan specific to your operation.
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Having a Trading or Hedging Account is essential for your business to be successful. Market volatility has increased across all commodities over the last 12 months, and 2026 has already had a volatile start. Opening an account in the future, will not help you if you need access now. To be successful, you need to be able to manage risk in real time. If you are proactive now, you will have the ability to be reactive when you need to be. You can be prepared and patient at the same time. Call me or hit the direct link above.
Hans Schmit
Broker, Pure Hedge Division
312-765-7311
hschmit@walshtrading.com
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Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.
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