Shootin' the Bull

“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

3/04/2026

Live Cattle:

Whether higher or lower in price, cattle feeders and packers have great needs for one another. Both appear in need of a significant price change to return to positive margins.  Packers are anticipated to continue to manipulate slaughter and cattle feeders hold on to them for as long as they possibly can.  This leads me to anticipate more of the exceptional volatility we have seen the past 5 weeks.  

​

Futures traders, or at least the computers, turned into buyers at the get go this morning.  Cattlemen continue to embolden themselves with bullishness of no more supplies. 

​

Feeder Cattle:

Futures traders narrowed the wider basis by leaps and bounds today with the softer index reading. Nothing has changed with the desire to bid the highest today, with only discounts in the future. A larger number of cattle have changed hands in February, leading me to anticipate an over 100% placement and over 100% on feed in the March on feed report.  While the numbers won't be that big of an increase, it is the low slaughter rate is what is exaggerating this.  

​

Whether higher or lower in the future, a higher opening on Thursday will lead me to recommend making sales on newly acquired inventory, or inventory that you wished you had done something with, when at the wider basis spreads. This is a sales solicitation.  

​

​Corn:

All were lower today.  Bean oil was able to stay plus, but it has a direct correlation to the diesel fuel market and that is the energy source in the greatest demand. Two things to consider.  One, if energy prices subside, corn and bean oil will loose the reason they are higher at the moment.  Two, if this conflict begins to impact China, they could simply tell us to keep our beans and crush them ourselves.  With no fewer acres slated this year, drought, disease, reduction of fertilizers and pest controls, or a continual rise in energy prices, I still can't find much that is bullish corn or beans.  When simply looking at cash and basis, futures are looking very optimistic.  

​

Energy:​

Energy was higher, but did see both sides of unchanged today.  I anticipate energy to trade higher.  While the conflict is apparently one sided, there are others looking at this with great interest.  China is heavily dependent upon oil imports from Iran and Venezuela. Any interaction by them would widen the scale of operations and has the potential to shake the hornets nest. 

​

A flip side of this could be the conflict is so one sided, that it ends abruptly, business goes back to normal, and energy prices plummet.  Since few know what the actions or reactions of President Trump are, I try to leave little to guess. 

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Bonds:

​Bonds were lower.  Commodity inflation broke a new high on the weekly Dow Jones Commodity index.  Cattle, energy, and still metals are all higher than the 2022 pervious top.  Were grains and oilseeds to perk up, this index would be much higher.  So, this is why bonds are believed down.  The desire to stimulate has met head on with commodity inflation. ​

​

​​​​​​​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

​