Trump’s Secret Weapon in the Rare Earth War

Long before trade wars and tariffs, China secured manufacturing dominance by controlling rare earths - a reality so consequential that the United States and its allies are now pledging more than $8.5 billion just to claw back some control of the supply chain.

As global manufacturing expanded over the past two decades, rare earth processing was steadily pushed out of Western supply chains. It was capital-intensive, technically demanding, and difficult to defend on short-term economics.

China made the opposite choice, keeping those capabilities in place and methodically expanding them as others exited.

“China didn’t win this by mining. It won by building the entire system–separation, refining, metals, magnets–all connected. Everyone else walked away from it. At that point, control wasn’t up for debate anymore,” REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY) CEO Lipi Sternheim said. “North America lost control, and the reality is simple: factories don’t run on ore. They run on metals and alloys and at this moment in time our company is the only one able to actually refine heavy metals and magnets. Our competitors, no matter how well funded they are, are at least 3 years away from production”

By the time rare earths became strategically visible, the infrastructure that determined who could actually build was already concentrated in one place. Then it was weaponized, with Beijing placing restrictions on rare earth exports in order to control which defense and advanced manufacturing programs received supply.

“That loss of end-to-end rare earth capability outside China is exactly what REAlloys was built to close,” Sternheim said.

And things are moving quickly, in tandem with the U.S. Department of Defense’s eye on the critical metal prize: domestic processing.

REalloys Inc. (NASDAQ: ALOY) has addressed the rare earth bottleneck that has constrained Western manufacturing for decades by reestablishing domestic conversion capacity, turning separated material into metals and alloys inside North America through its partnership with the Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC). Now, it’s the only North American company with North American supply from a heavy rare earth refinery.

With that conversion capacity in place, REalloys has moved to lock in feedstock, including a long-term offtake agreement tied to Kazakhstan.

Through a long-term non-binding offtake agreement with AltynGroup, REAlloys will pull rare earth feedstock out of Kazakhstan and route it straight into its North American metallization and alloying system. The material does not leave the chain as concentrate.

Oxides and concentrates don’t power anything. Metals and alloys do.

Until rare earths are converted into metal and alloy form, they cannot be used in motors, magnets, or weapons systems. That conversion step is where control has been lost for decades — and where most Western supply chains break.

By routing material all the way through to metals and alloys inside the United States, REAlloys is solving the part of the problem that cannot be fixed later, substituted, or rushed in a crisis.

The feedstock is tied to AltynGroup’s Kokbulak project, where rare earth-bearing material is recovered from an existing iron ore operation. The concentrate includes both light and heavy rare earths, including dysprosium and terbium.

North America has handled foreign rare earth material before, but almost always handed it back offshore before it reached metal or alloy form. This arrangement is built to stop that handoff. Material enters the chain and stays in the chain until it becomes defense-grade output.

This is not future capacity. The Kazakhstan feedstock will be routed into a system that is already running.

REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY) operates the only facility in North America capable of converting rare earths through metallization and alloying at scale, including heavy rare earth elements.

That capability sits at its Euclid, Ohio site, where rare earth metals and alloys are already being produced for U.S. government customers.

This is the step in the chain where rare earths become usable for defense systems, motors, and high-performance magnets– and it is the step the West no longer controls. With new U.S. rules taking effect in 2027 restricting the use of Chinese rare earths in defense and federally backed manufacturing, existing domestic conversion capacity is becoming more relevant by the quarter.

There is no parallel facility in North America handling heavy rare earth conversion at this level. Building one is not a short-term exercise. Processing, metallization, and alloy qualification take years to permit, finance, construct, and qualify with defense customers. Even under accelerated timelines, meaningful competition is measured in half-decades, not quarters.

REalloys has assembled that capability into a single operating system.

Kazakhstan provides scale-ready feedstock. Hoidas Lake in Saskatchewan adds a second upstream source. The partnership with the Saskatchewan Research Council anchors midstream processing. Euclid closes the loop by turning material into defense-grade metals and alloys. This is not a collection of projects moving independently. It is a single conversion system designed to keep material inside Western control all the way to finished output.

The U.S. government is now saying out loud what defense planners have been warning about privately for years.

This week, Washington convened talks with allied and partner countries explicitly aimed at weakening China’s grip over critical minerals supply chains. The issue has moved out of the realm of industrial competition and into national security planning, at a point where there is almost no buffer left.

China has already used rare earth controls to cut off specific military and industrial customers.

In late 2025, Beijing imposed an explicit ban on exports of certain rare earth materials and processing technologies for military use, blocking shipments tied to defense and weapons manufacturing. The restrictions were not broad trade measures. They were targeted at materials and know-how required for guidance systems, magnets, and advanced electronics used by foreign militaries.

Japan has been on the receiving end as well.

Chinese authorities have recently tightened export controls and licensing around rare earths and related materials amid renewed political friction with Tokyo, reviving a playbook Japan knows well. In 2010, China abruptly curtailed rare earth exports to Japan during a diplomatic dispute, disrupting automotive and electronics supply chains and forcing emergency stockpiling.

The Pentagon has already crossed the line from concern to intervention.

Complementing DoD’s downstream focus, the U.S. government is launching a $12 billion strategic critical-minerals stockpile that will include rare earths, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and other essential elements. The initiative aims to reduce U.S. dependence on China and ensure material availability for defense, advanced manufacturing, and technology sectors by acquiring and holding key feedstocks and intermediates.

Using Defense Production Act authorities and direct financing, it has pushed capital into domestic rare earth processing and magnet production, including MP Materials (NASDAQ: MP), to keep U.S. weapons programs from remaining hostage to Chinese-controlled metals. Using Defense Production Act authorities and direct financing, it has pushed capital downstream into domestic rare earth processing and magnet materials to keep U.S. weapons programs from remaining dependent on Chinese-controlled metals.

Government action is still moving through policy channels and legacy projects, while REAlloys is already producing rare earth metals and alloys inside the United States–the layer the Department of Defense now treats as critical.

REalloys is right at the downstream choke point. The hardest part of the supply chain is already built, demand is real, and the barriers to entry are high.

Other companies involved in the rare earths sector that you should be aware of:

MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP)

MP Materials has largely completed its strategy of rebuilding a fully domestic rare earth magnet supply chain. While Mountain Pass remains one of the world’s premier rare earth deposits, the company’s emphasis has shifted toward value-added refining and magnet manufacturing.

Its Fort Worth, Texas facility is ramping production of finished NdFeB magnets manufactured from internally separated oxides, creating an end-to-end U.S. supply chain. Initial annual magnet capacity is near 1,000 metric tons, with staged expansion tied to automotive and defense demand.

Department of Defense support continues to accelerate development of heavy rare earth separation capabilities, including dysprosium and terbium. Multi-year government supply agreements reinforce MP’s position as both a commercial supplier and a strategic national security partner.

Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (NYSE: SQM)

Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile remains one of the world’s most consequential lithium producers, supplying high-purity lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide that feed lithium-ion battery supply chains globally. Headquartered in Santiago and operating extensive brine extraction and chemical refining infrastructure in Chile’s Atacama Desert, SQM leverages decades of extraction experience and advanced purification to deliver material into EV and energy storage markets.

The company’s vertically integrated model spans brine resource development, lithium chemical production, and specialty industrial chemicals, helping it manage pricing cycles and diversify revenue beyond battery metals. Despite geopolitical and regulatory headwinds in Chile’s evolving lithium policy landscape, SQM maintains strategic partnerships and continues to expand capacity targeted at battery-grade chemicals.

SQM is also investing in direct lithium extraction and downstream ventures aimed at lowering water usage and carbon intensity per tonne of lithium produced, positioning the business as a core supplier to automakers and renewable energy OEMs seeking sustainable North-South supply chain solutions through the late 2020s.

Amprius Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: AMPX)

Amprius Technologies is a U.S.-based advanced battery technology company focused on silicon anode lithium-ion cells that deliver some of the highest commercial energy densities available today. Its SiCore and SiMaxx silicon-enabled platforms target applications where power-to-weight performance is critical, including electric aviation, defense systems, and high-end EVs.

The company has scaled beyond R&D into commercial production, securing multi-MW/h contract capacity and engaging in agreements to supply silicon-anode lithium-ion cells that outperform conventional graphite-based designs on both energy density and fast-charge capability.

Amprius’s proprietary materials and cell designs position it at the intersection of high-performance battery innovation and next-generation mobility markets, with potential demand catalysts tied to aerospace electrification, specialized electric vehicles, and grid-edge storage where weight and efficiency drive technical decisions.

Critical Metals Corp. (NASDAQ: CRML)

Critical Metals Corp. is advancing a Western-focused development portfolio centered on lithium and rare earth assets in Europe and Greenland. Its Wolfsberg Lithium Project in Austria has moved through definitive feasibility and is positioned to become one of the EU’s first new hard-rock lithium producers.

Located near Central European battery manufacturing clusters, Wolfsberg benefits from logistical advantages and alignment with the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act. Underground mine design and established permitting progress have supported community and regulatory acceptance. Binding offtake arrangements, including automotive partnerships, provide commercial clarity ahead of construction.

The company’s Tanbreez Project in Greenland adds exposure to heavy rare earth elements and zirconium. Its kakortokite-hosted mineralization presents distinct processing characteristics that may offer cost and reagent efficiencies compared to traditional carbonatite systems.

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. (OTC: LYSDY)

Lynas Rare Earths remains the leading producer of separated rare earth materials outside China. The company has restructured its processing chain to mitigate regulatory risk and expand long-term throughput.

The Kalgoorlie cracking and leaching plant in Western Australia is fully operational, allowing Mt Weld concentrate to be processed domestically and radioactive residues to be managed before shipment. This shift has enhanced supply security while addressing prior Malaysian regulatory concerns.

In the United States, Lynas is progressing construction of its Seadrift, Texas heavy rare earth separation facility, supported by Department of Defense funding. The plant will produce dysprosium and terbium critical to high-temperature magnets used in EV and defense applications.

Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. (NYSE: NMG)

Nouveau Monde Graphite is developing an integrated mine-to-anode model designed to supply low-carbon graphite to Western battery manufacturers. Its Matawinie project in Quebec is structured as an all-electric open-pit operation powered by hydroelectricity, significantly lowering lifecycle emissions relative to conventional peers.

Concentrate from Matawinie will feed the company’s downstream facility in Bécancour, where purification, spheroidization, and coating processes will convert material into battery-grade anode graphite. Vertical integration enables higher margins while reducing exposure to Chinese processing dominance.

Long-term offtake agreements with major battery and automotive partners underpin Phase 1 economics. Strategic investors provide capital support and supply-chain access, positioning Nouveau Monde within North America’s emerging battery materials corridor.

Perpetua Resources Corp. (NASDAQ: PPTA)

Perpetua Resources is advancing the Stibnite Gold Project in Idaho as a dual-purpose asset combining gold production with a strategic domestic antimony supply. The project is designed to restore a historic mining district while simultaneously remediating legacy environmental impacts.

Antimony recovered from Stibnite would represent the only significant primary U.S. source of the metal, which is essential for munitions, flame retardants, and advanced battery technologies. The Department of Defense has provided funding support to accelerate development, underscoring the project’s strategic importance.

In addition to antimony, gold revenues are expected to underpin project economics, allowing Perpetua to finance remediation and infrastructure improvements. As permitting advances, the company is positioning Stibnite as both a critical mineral project and an environmental restoration initiative.

NioCorp is the primary developer of the Elk Creek Project in southeast Nebraska, which is poised to become the most significant domestic source of Niobium, Scandium, and Titanium in North America. Following the launch of the White House and EXIM Bank’s “Project Vault” initiative in February 2026, a strategic effort to build a U.S. Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve, NioCorp has moved into the national spotlight as a foundational security asset. The project boasts an estimated 38-year mine life with a projected $2.8 billion pre-tax net present value, underpinned by a design that features zero process water discharge and groundwater protection.

Operationally, the company has transitioned from exploration to active development, with its Board of Directors approving the official start of the Mine Portal Project in early 2026. This $44.6 million initiative marks the beginning of physical construction at the site, supported by recent drill results that confirmed high-grade mineralization. NioCorp has also vertically integrated its strategy by acquiring specialized manufacturing assets and IP to produce aluminum-scandium master alloys in the U.S., a move intended to satisfy the growing aerospace and defense demand for lightweight, high-strength materials that are currently subject to Chinese supply chain risks.

Management, led by CEO Mark Smith, has successfully navigated the complex federal permitting landscape, securing all necessary government approvals required to reach the construction phase. The company has also secured millions in funding from the U.S. Department of Defense to accelerate the establishment of a domestic "mine-to-manufacture" supply chain. As NioCorp eyes the first commercial output of niobium and scandium later this decade, it serves as a critical hedge against global supply volatility and a key partner for the Pentagon’s long-term stockpiling goals.

USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR)

USA Rare Earth is the first company to execute a fully vertically integrated "mine-to-magnet" strategy on U.S. soil. In early 2026, the company secured a transformative $1.6 billion funding package from the U.S. government, which included a direct equity stake from the administration. This capital is being deployed to accelerate the development of the Round Top Mountain project in Texas, the richest known deposit of heavy rare earths, gallium, and beryllium in the country, while simultaneously ramping up its 310,000 sq. ft. magnet manufacturing facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma.

The Stillwater plant is expected to reach commercial production in the first half of 2026, producing high-performance sintered neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets used in F-35 fighter jets, electric vehicle motors, and missile guidance systems. By 2029, USAR aims to produce over 10,000 metric tons of magnets annually, which would satisfy a significant portion of the domestic defense and industrial requirement. To de-risk the full-scale commercial launch of its Texas mine, the company is operating a hydrometallurgical demonstration facility in Colorado, which is using advanced solvent-extraction circuits to prove its refined processing technology at scale.

Strategy-wise, USA Rare Earth is positioning itself to be a "total supply chain" provider, aiming for complete control from the ore in Texas to the finished alloy and magnet in Oklahoma by 2028. This integrated model allows the company to capture higher margins than traditional miners and provides a "first-mover" advantage in the emerging U.S. domestic rare earth market. With estimated 2030 revenues forecasted at $2.6 billion and EBITDA of $1.2 billion, USAR is the flagship American effort to neutralize the Chinese "kill switch" on strategic magnetic materials.

The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC)

The Metals Company (TMC) is the global leader in deep-sea mineral exploration, targeting polymetallic nodules on the seafloor of the Clarion-Clipperton Zone in the Pacific Ocean. In January 2026, TMC took a massive step toward commercialization by filing the first-ever consolidated deep-seabed mining application, which would grant them a permit area covering 65,000 $km^2$. This move was made possible by the 2026 modernization of NOAA’s deep-seabed mining rules, which provides a clearer legal framework for U.S.-aligned companies to recover metals from international waters.

The company’s NORI-D project is estimated to contain enough Nickel, Cobalt, Copper, and Manganese to meet the requirements of 280 million electric vehicles, roughly the size of the entire U.S. light vehicle fleet. Because these nodules are "rocks on the seafloor" rather than ore buried in the ground, TMC’s collection process eliminates the need for blasting, tailings dams, and deforestation typically associated with terrestrial mining. Peer-reviewed studies in 2025 and 2026 have suggested that this method could reduce the lifecycle carbon impact of battery metals by up to 90% compared to land-based ores.

TMC is currently working with Benchmark Mineral Intelligence to finalize a Life Cycle Assessment that will prove the environmental benefits of seafloor nodules to Western automakers and defense contractors. While environmental NGOs remain cautious, the U.S. government’s push to find "non-terrestrial" sources of cobalt and nickel, both currently dominated by China and the DRC, has provided TMC with significant political tailwinds. As the company moves toward its first commercial recovery in late 2026 or 2027, it stands as the ultimate "wildcard" in the race for critical mineral sovereignty.

By. Josh Owens
NioCorp Developments (NASDAQ: NB)