Almonty Industries Reports Second Straight Quarter Where the Tungsten Price Did Most of the Work

Almonty Industries Inc. (ALM) reports earnings on August 13, 2026, with analysts expecting a dramatic turnaround as the tungsten producer transitions from losses to profitability. The central question is whether the company can deliver on consensus estimates of $0.14 per share — representing +800% growth year-over-year — as production ramps at its flagship Sangdong mine in South Korea. With the stock trading well below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages despite recent gains, this report will test whether operational momentum can translate into sustained investor confidence.

Part 1: Earnings Preview

Almonty Industries Inc. is a tungsten mining company focused on developing and operating tungsten mines, with its primary asset being the Sangdong mine in South Korea — one of the largest tungsten deposits globally. The company also operates the Panasqueira mine in Portugal and holds development projects in Spain, positioning it as a strategic supplier of this critical metal used in aerospace, defense, and industrial applications.

Almonty reports earnings on August 13, 2026, with analysts expecting $0.14 per share on revenue estimates ranging from $61.49M to $130.04M (consensus around $86.54M to $89.06M depending on source). The company most recently reported $0.10 per share for Q2 2026, meeting analyst expectations. Compared to the same quarter last year when ALM posted $-0.02 per share, the consensus estimate represents a remarkable +800% year-over-year improvement as the company pivots from development-stage losses to production-driven profitability.

Three key themes define this earnings story:

Sangdong Production Ramp: The critical narrative is whether Almonty can demonstrate sustained production momentum at Sangdong, which began commercial operations in late 2025. Analysts are watching throughput rates, recovery grades, and cost metrics to validate the mine's transition from commissioning to steady-state operations. Any operational hiccups or delays in reaching nameplate capacity could significantly impact revenue projections.

Revenue Inflection Point: With consensus revenue estimates implying +1,271% to +1,322% year-over-year growth, this quarter represents a fundamental inflection as Sangdong's output begins flowing through the income statement. Investors will scrutinize whether actual sales match the aggressive forecasts, as the company moves from a development story to a production-driven valuation framework.

Tungsten Market Dynamics: Pricing and demand conditions for tungsten remain crucial, particularly given geopolitical tensions and supply chain considerations that have elevated tungsten's strategic importance. Analysts will look for management commentary on contract negotiations, pricing realizations versus spot markets, and customer pipeline development as indicators of sustainable margin potential.

Analyst commentary ahead of the release reflects cautious optimism about the operational transition. The 5 Strong Buy ratings among 6 total analysts suggest confidence in the long-term Sangdong thesis, though the wide range of estimates ($0.11 to $0.18 for Q3) indicates uncertainty about near-term execution. The consensus view appears to be that while the transformation story is compelling, investors should expect volatility as the company navigates the learning curve of ramping a world-class tungsten operation.

Part 2: Historical Earnings Performance

Almonty's recent earnings history reveals a company in the midst of a dramatic operational transformation. In September 2025, the company reported $-0.02 per share against a $0.00 estimate, followed by a December 2025 miss of $-0.04 versus $-0.01 estimated (a -300% surprise). This pattern of losses reflected the pre-production phase as Sangdong moved toward commissioning.

The inflection arrived in March 2026 when ALM reported $0.01 per share, exactly matching the $0.01 estimate — marking the company's first profitable quarter in this dataset. The momentum accelerated in June 2026 with $0.10 per share, again precisely meeting the $0.10 consensus. These back-to-back in-line results suggest management has gained visibility into production economics and is successfully guiding analysts toward realistic expectations.

The pattern shows a clear trajectory: from development-stage losses through late 2025, to breakeven in early 2026, to meaningful profitability by mid-2026. The two consecutive quarters of meeting estimates without surprises indicates operational discipline, though it also suggests conservative guidance as the company prioritizes credibility over beat-and-raise dynamics during this critical ramp phase. Investors should note that while ALM hasn't delivered upside surprises, it also hasn't disappointed since turning profitable — a reassuring consistency for a company executing a complex mine startup.

Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.

Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings

Almonty typically reports earnings before market open, meaning Day 0 captures the market's immediate reaction in the first trading session, while Day +1 reflects follow-through momentum.

Historical price behavior around earnings shows significant volatility, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 4.27% and Day +1 move of 5.93%. The intraday ranges are even more dramatic, averaging 7.96% on Day 0 and 10.17% on Day +1, indicating substantial intraday swings regardless of the closing direction.

The most recent earnings (August 2026) saw a -2.99% Day 0 decline followed by a strong +8.13% Day +1 reversal, demonstrating how initial reactions can quickly reverse as investors digest the results. The May 2026 report produced consistent gains (+6.30% Day 0, +5.74% Day +1), while March 2026 showed sustained selling pressure (-3.37% Day 0, -5.70% Day +1). Earlier reports in the development phase (November and August 2025) produced more muted reactions, with the August 2025 report showing minimal Day 0 movement (-0.42%) but a sharper Day +1 decline (-4.88%).

The pattern suggests investors should prepare for double-digit intraday volatility regardless of the ultimate closing direction, with Day +1 often amplifying or reversing the initial Day 0 reaction as the market fully processes operational details and guidance.

Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move

The options market is pricing an expected move of 12.40% through the August 21 expiration, which is notably higher than the average historical Day 0 move of 4.27% but roughly in line with the average Day +1 move of 5.93%. However, the expected move falls short of the average intraday ranges (7.96% Day 0, 10.17% Day +1), suggesting options traders may be underpricing the potential for extreme intraday volatility that has characterized recent earnings reactions.

Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying

Analyst sentiment on Almonty remains strongly bullish, with the consensus rating at 4.67 out of 5.0 — reflecting 5 Strong Buy ratings, 0 Moderate Buys, 1 Hold, and no Sell ratings among 6 analysts covering the stock. The average price target of $25.41 implies 76.8% upside from the current price of $14.37, with individual targets ranging from $22.64 (low) to $33.00 (high). This wide target range reflects differing assumptions about Sangdong's production trajectory and tungsten pricing, but even the most conservative target suggests meaningful appreciation potential.

The sentiment trend is classified as unchanged over the past month, indicating analysts have maintained their bullish stance despite recent stock price weakness. The concentration of Strong Buy ratings with only a single Hold and zero Sell recommendations demonstrates conviction in the long-term thesis, even as the stock has pulled back from higher levels. The $25.41 consensus target represents a significant premium to current trading levels, suggesting analysts believe the market is undervaluing Almonty's production potential and strategic positioning in the tungsten market.

The lack of any bearish ratings is particularly notable given the stock's recent underperformance relative to its moving averages, implying analysts view current price levels as an attractive entry point rather than a reflection of fundamental concerns. The tight clustering of Strong Buy ratings suggests broad agreement that Sangdong's ramp will drive substantial value creation, though the wide price target range ($22.64 to $33.00) indicates meaningful uncertainty about the pace and profitability of that ramp.

Part 4: Technical Picture

Almonty enters earnings with a mixed technical picture that reflects recent weakness despite short-term stabilization. The Barchart Technical Opinion currently shows a 40% Sell signal, representing a significant improvement from last week's 72% Sell reading but still weaker than last month's 8% Sell. This progression suggests the stock has stabilized after a sharp decline but hasn't yet generated sustained buying momentum.

Timeframe Analysis:

• Short-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal indicates near-term momentum remains negative despite recent stabilization
• Medium-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal suggests the intermediate trend has deteriorated from earlier strength
• Long-term (Hold): Neutral reading reflects a balanced longer-term technical structure without clear directional bias

Trend Characteristics: The Weak strength combined with Weakest direction indicates a fragile technical environment where the stock lacks conviction in either direction heading into the earnings catalyst.

The moving average structure reveals the challenge: ALM trades at $14.37, above its 5-day ($13.79), 10-day ($13.08), 20-day ($13.25), and 200-day ($14.06) moving averages, but remains below the critical 50-day ($15.43) and 100-day ($17.24) levels. This configuration suggests the stock has found near-term support and stabilized after a decline from higher levels, but faces overhead resistance from the intermediate-term averages that could cap upside momentum.

The key technical level to watch is the 50-day moving average at $15.43, which represents the first meaningful resistance zone. A strong earnings reaction that reclaims this level would signal a potential trend reversal, while failure to break through could reinforce the recent downtrend. The 100-day moving average at $17.24 represents a secondary resistance target that would confirm a more substantial recovery. On the downside, the 20-day moving average at $13.25 serves as near-term support, with a break below potentially triggering another leg lower. Overall, the technical setup is cautiously neutral — the stock has stabilized from recent weakness but lacks the momentum to suggest a high-probability breakout. The earnings catalyst will likely determine whether ALM can reclaim its intermediate-term moving averages or faces further consolidation at current levels.