January 1 Cattle Inventory Down Slightly
All cattle and calves in the United States as of January 1, 2026 totaled 86.2 million head, slightly below the 86.5 million head on January 1, 2025.
All cows and heifers that have calved, at 37.2 million head, were slightly below the 37.3 million head on January 1, 2025. Beef cows, at 27.6 million head, were down 1 percent from a year ago. Milk cows, at 9.57 million head, were up 2 percent from the previous year.
All heifers 500 pounds and over as of January 1, 2026 totaled 18.0 million head, 1 percent below the 18.1 million head on January 1, 2025. Beef replacement heifers, at 4.71 million head, were up 1 percent from a year ago. Milk replacement heifers, at 3.90 million head, were down slightly from the previous year. Other heifers, at 9.40 million head, were 2 percent below a year earlier.
Steers weighing 500 pounds and over as of January 1, 2026 totaled 15.6 million head, down 1 percent from January 1, 2025.
Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over as of January 1, 2026 totaled 2.01 million head, up slightly from January 1, 2025.
Calves under 500 pounds as of January 1, 2026 totaled 13.3 million head, down slightly from January 1, 2025.
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for all feedlots totaled 13.8 million head on January 1, 2026. The inventory is down 3 percent from the January 1, 2025 total of 14.3 million head. Cattle on feed in
feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head accounted for 82.7 percent of the total cattle on feed on January 1, 2026, up slightly from the previous year. The combined total of calves under 500 pounds and other heifers and steers over
500 pounds (outside of feedlots), at 24.5 million head, was 1 percent above January 1, 2025.
Calf Crop Down 2 Percent
The 2025 calf crop in the United States was estimated at 32.9 million head, down 2 percent from the previous year’s calf crop. Calves born during the first half of 2025 were estimated at 24.2 million head, down 2 percent from the first half of 2024. Calves born during the second half of 2025 were estimated at 8.70 million head, 26 percent of the total 2025 calf crop.
Revisions
All inventory and calf crop estimates for January 1, 2025 and July 1, 2025 were reviewed using calf crop, official slaughter, import and export data, and the relationship of new survey information to the prior surveys. Based on the
findings of this review, 2024 calf crop decreased by 0.3 percent. January 1, 2025 all cattle and calves decreased by 0.2 percent and all cows and heifers that have calved increased by 0.2 percent. State level estimates were reviewed and changes were made to reallocate inventory estimates to the United States total.
Live Cattle (April)
April live cattle futures softened up in the back half of last week’s trade, amidst a lot of volatility in other major commodity markets. The market settled right on the 20-day moving average 236.56. A failure to defend this on a closing basis and we can see a retest of the lower end of the range and the 100-day moving average, 232.15. Volatility in other commodities was seen overnight; this may also play a role in price action today.
Resistance: 239.25-240.15****
Pivot: 235.60-236.33
Support: 231.50-232.15***, 226.85**, 224.70-225.65***, 218.00-219.00***
Stay ahead of the herd!Â
Â
Subscribe to our daily Livestock Roundup for exclusive insights into Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle, and Lean Hogs. Get access to our proprietary trading levels and actionable market biases delivered straight to your inbox—every day.
Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.
With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500
Performance Disclaimer
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.
One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Research Disclaimer
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Blue Line Futures LLC shall be construed as, or is in the nature of, a Solicitation for entering into a futures transaction. Blue Line Futures LLC does not employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.
Seasonal Disclaimer
This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.
/Microsoft%20Corporation%20logo%20on%20sign-by%20Jean-Luc%20Ichard%20via%20iStock.jpg)
/ServiceNow%20Inc%20logo%20on%20phone-by%20rafapress%20via%20Shutterstock.jpg)
