Monday.com Built the Agents Everyone Wanted and Now Has to Prove Someone Will Pay For Them

Monday.com Ltd (MNDY) reports second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings before market open on August 10, 2026, with analysts expecting $0.34 per share on the bottom line. The central question: can the work management platform sustain its recent momentum after delivering three consecutive quarters of substantial earnings beats, or will the stock's dramatic recovery from last year's lows face a reality check?

Part 1: Earnings Preview

Monday.com operates a cloud-based work operating system that enables organizations to build custom workflow applications and manage projects, with a focus on visual collaboration tools for teams. The platform serves over 225,000 customers globally across industries, competing in the rapidly evolving work management and productivity software space.

For the quarter ending June 2026, analysts expect $0.34 per share, representing extraordinary +1,033% growth versus the $0.03 reported in the same quarter last year. The most recent quarter (March 2026) delivered $0.54 per share, crushing the $0.34 estimate by 59%. Revenue estimates for the current quarter stand at approximately $355 million, reflecting continued double-digit growth momentum.

Three key themes define this earnings story:

Enterprise Expansion Trajectory: Investors are watching whether Monday.com can sustain its push upmarket into larger enterprise accounts while maintaining the rapid growth rates that have characterized its SMB-focused business. The company's ability to land six-figure deals and expand within existing enterprise customers will be critical to justifying its premium valuation.

Profitability Inflection Point: After years of prioritizing growth over margins, the market is focused on Monday.com's path to sustained profitability. The dramatic improvement from $0.03 last year to the $0.34 estimate this quarter suggests the company may have reached an inflection point where operating leverage is finally materializing at scale.

AI-Driven Product Innovation: The integration of artificial intelligence capabilities into Monday.com's platform represents both an opportunity and a competitive necessity. Analysts are evaluating whether the company's AI features are driving meaningful customer engagement and pricing power, or if they're simply table stakes in an increasingly crowded market.

Analyst commentary ahead of the release emphasizes cautious optimism. With 16 of 25 analysts rating the stock a Strong Buy and a mean price target of $108.78 implying 17% upside, the Street sees continued growth potential. However, the wide range between the $80 low target and $165 high target reflects significant uncertainty about the company's ability to balance growth investments with profitability improvements in an increasingly competitive landscape.

Part 2: Historical Earnings Performance

Monday.com has demonstrated remarkable consistency in exceeding analyst expectations over the past year, though the pattern reveals an important inflection point. The company stumbled badly in Q2 2025, missing estimates by 82% with just $0.03 versus the $0.17 consensus. However, that miss marked a turning point rather than the beginning of a downward trend.

Since that disappointing quarter, Monday.com has delivered three consecutive substantial beats. The company reported $0.25 against a $0.10 estimate (150% beat) in Q3 2025, followed by $0.29 versus $0.12 (142% beat) in Q4 2025, and most recently $0.54 against $0.34 (59% beat) in Q1 2026. This progression shows not only consistent outperformance but also accelerating absolute earnings power—the company has more than doubled its quarterly EPS in just three quarters.

The trend suggests Monday.com has successfully navigated whatever operational challenges caused the Q2 2025 miss and established a pattern of conservative guidance paired with strong execution. The magnitude of recent beats—averaging over 115% across the last three quarters—indicates either persistent analyst conservatism or genuine operational momentum that continues to exceed even bullish expectations.

Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.

Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings

Monday.com reports before market open, meaning Day 0 captures the market's immediate reaction during the first trading session after results are released, while Day +1 reflects follow-through momentum.

Monday.com exhibits extreme volatility around earnings releases, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 15.79%—substantially higher than typical market reactions. The historical pattern shows dramatic swings in both directions: the stock has posted Day 0 moves ranging from a 30% plunge (August 2025) to a 26% surge (February 2025), with five of the last eight reports producing double-digit moves.

The Day +1 follow-through averages 2.96%, suggesting most of the price discovery occurs in the immediate reaction, though notable exceptions exist. After the February 2025 earnings that drove a 26% Day 0 gain, the stock was essentially flat the next day. Conversely, the May 2025 report that produced minimal Day 0 movement saw a 4% rally on Day +1, indicating delayed recognition of the results' implications.

The intraday volatility is equally striking, with Day 0 trading ranges averaging 10.78% and reaching as high as 21% in the most recent May 2026 report. This wide intraday movement suggests significant disagreement among market participants about how to value the results, creating both risk and opportunity for traders. Investors should prepare for substantial price swings regardless of whether the company beats or misses estimates.

Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move

The options market is pricing an 18.85% expected move for this earnings release, which is notably higher than the 15.79% average historical Day 0 move. This elevated implied volatility suggests options traders are anticipating an even more dramatic reaction than the stock's already-volatile historical pattern, potentially reflecting heightened uncertainty about the sustainability of Monday.com's recent profitability improvements or concerns about guidance in a challenging macro environment.

Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying

Analyst sentiment on Monday.com remains decidedly bullish, with a consensus rating of 4.36 out of 5.0—firmly in Strong Buy territory. The current breakdown shows 16 Strong Buy ratings, 2 Moderate Buys, and 7 Holds, with zero sell recommendations across the 25 analysts covering the stock. This lopsided distribution reflects broad confidence in the company's growth trajectory and market position.

The sentiment trend is unchanged from one month ago, indicating stable conviction among analysts despite the stock's recent price appreciation. The mean price target of $108.78 implies approximately 17% upside from the current price of $93.13, suggesting analysts believe the recent rally still leaves room for further gains. However, the wide dispersion in individual targets—ranging from a low of $80.00 to a high of $165.00—reveals significant disagreement about the company's ultimate valuation, with the most bullish analysts seeing more than double the upside of the most conservative.

The concentration of Strong Buy ratings without any offsetting sell recommendations is notable and suggests analysts view any near-term volatility as a buying opportunity rather than a reason for caution. The unchanged sentiment despite recent price strength indicates analysts are raising their targets in line with the stock's performance, maintaining their bullish stance rather than becoming more cautious at higher levels.

Part 4: Technical Picture

Monday.com enters earnings with strong technical momentum, as the Barchart Technical Opinion has improved from a 16% Sell signal one month ago to a 24% Buy signal currently. This shift reflects the stock's sustained rally above key moving averages and improving short-term momentum indicators. The signal strengthened further from last week's 24% Buy reading, maintaining its positive trajectory.

Timeframe Analysis:

• Short-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal indicates positive near-term momentum heading into the earnings release
• Medium-term (Hold): Neutral reading suggests the intermediate trend is in consolidation mode after the recent rally
• Long-term (Hold): Neutral signal reflects the stock's position below its 200-day moving average despite recent strength

Trend Characteristics: The trend shows minimum strength with average direction, suggesting the recent rally represents early-stage momentum rather than an established powerful trend, leaving the stock vulnerable to earnings-driven volatility.

The stock is trading at $93.13, positioned above its 5-day ($90.97), 10-day ($88.96), 20-day ($83.47), 50-day ($80.94), and 100-day ($75.71) moving averages—a bullish alignment across all short- and intermediate-term timeframes.

However, Monday.com remains below its 200-day moving average of $104.20, a significant technical hurdle that represents the stock's longer-term downtrend from previous highs. The 12% gap to this key level suggests the rally still faces overhead resistance despite recent strength. The improving short-term momentum and positioning above all shorter-duration moving averages provides a supportive technical setup heading into earnings, but the distance below the 200-day average and the stock's history of extreme post-earnings volatility means traders should expect substantial two-way risk regardless of the fundamental results.