As Trump Drops Tariff Threats on Greenland, Should You Buy This 1 Hot Rare Earths Stock?

The stock market moved lower last week due to President Donald Trump's earlier threats to annex Greenland, but specific sectors have rebounded even higher once military action started looking unlikely. Trump said he would no longer impose his new tariffs aimed at Europe. He instead announced a "framework" deal, which will give the U.S. control over limited areas of Greenland relevant to American strategic interests.

Critical Metals (CRML) jumped immediately. This company is involved in the Tanbreez rare earths project in Greenland. This is a project that is linked mostly to the Saudi government but could garner attention from the Trump administration. Greenland as a whole has significant rare earth resources, and Critical Metals is one of the only companies with on-the-ground experience there.

China's retaliatory measures that restricted rare earths to the U.S. last year drew attention to several rare earth companies. The Trump administration then signed a landmark deal with MP Materials (MP) last year and continued investing in several other similar names to secure rare earths. The U.S. Commerce Department signed a $1.6 billion deal with USA Rare Earth (USAR) this week. With all eyes being on Greenland, Critical Metals could be next.

CRML Stock Already Tripled. Is It Worth Chasing?

It's not a secret that this is among the hottest stocks now. CRML used to change hands below $7 earlier this month before briefly surging to nearly $21. It has cooled off since, but the stock may be preparing for another leg up, especially if a deal between Critical Metals and the government is announced.

The company remains pre-revenue, and estimates are few and far between regarding how big the potential is here. Rare earth prices are volatile, and extracting resources from Greenland will be costly and lengthy. Critical Metals reported just $7.3 million in cash and cash equivalents and $171.7 million in total assets in Q3 2025. Yet, it has a market capitalization of ~$2.2 billion. Whether you should chase it at this stage is thus an excellent question.

If you use previous rare earth deals as a yardstick, I still think it's worth buying. The government is willing to pay well above market prices for rare earths and will cover capex as long as it can secure a supply outside of China.

In fact, I believe a deal with Critical Metals could be one of the largest due to how much effort is needed to extract resources from Greenland.

Critical Metals Is Expanding Its Greenland Footprint

CRML has been trading like a geopolitical "option" on Greenland and Western rare earth independence. The company already approved construction of a multi-use storage and pilot facility in Qaqortoq, Greenland, under a turnkey contract, with readiness targeted by May 2026.

On the asset side, the Tanbreez project has an exploitation license granted by Greenland's government in 2020 and referenced a 4.7 billion-ton "multi-element" management estimated resource (with S-K 1300 conversion underway).

A March 2025 preliminary economic assessment cited an NPV of about $3 billion (before tax) and described a phased plan starting around 85,000 tonnes of rare earth oxides per year, scaling to 425,000 tonnes after modular expansion, with offtake agreements signed for roughly three-quarters of expected concentrate output.

Should You Buy CRML Stock Now?

CRML stock is a high-risk, high-reward gamble that Greeland will continue to be in the headlines, and the attention will eventually translate into an agreement with Critical Metals and the government. The company has already seen a significant infusion of Saudi money, to the tune of “up to $1.5 billion.” This already sets the precedent for a U.S. deal, and it is likely to be far larger in scale if it materializes.

Regardless, it is too early to be solidly bullish here. I'd wait for pilot-plant delivery and results, plus funding clarity, before treating CRML as more than a speculative position sized small enough to survive sharp reversals.

In short, CRML stock is a speculative buy in my book.