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The cattle markets succumbed to the rumor mill as prices opened at the highs and crashed as talk of the New World Screwworm appearing in Texas sent prices crashing as traders wanted out of long positions in front of the upcoming 3-day holiday. The USDA never confirmed the story and the story changed somewhat during the session will talk that the Commissioner of Texas’ Agriculture gave a speech on television stating that it was inevitable that the screwworm would appear in Texas. In my opinion if this is true (I haven’t seen the speech), his talk was all about open up the border as we are going to get it anyway so we should open up the border so my Texans can get back to buying cheap Mexican cattle. The screwworm fears took over and sent Feeder Cattle temporarily down limit and the fats nearing its down limit price at the low. The USDA supposedly came out and said we aren’t opening up the border anytime soon. April Live Cattle has taken over as the lead contract with its volume surpassing the volume of the February contract. It opened higher, made the high at 238.60 and then broke down to the low at 231.275, just above the down limit price. It bounced at the end of the day, settling at 233.975. The breakdown took price down to the 100-DMA on the continuous chart now at 231.35, found support and rallied back and was able to get above the rising 21-DMA now at 232.975, settling above it. The break down formed a Bearish Engulfing Candlestick in the process on the Daily Chart. March Feeder Cattle also opened higher, ticked to its high at 365.00 and then broke down to its low at the down limit price at 355.30. It was able to get off limit and it moved higher to settle at 356.45. The break down took price to the rising 13-DMA now at 355.825 with settlement just above it. It also formed a Bearish Engulfing Candlestick. The break down in Live Cattle took price to the top of the prior consolidation band and the recovery put it into the lower end of the recent range on the continuous chart. The break down in Feeder Cattle took price to its recent lows from its prior trading range. The worries of the screwworm breaking down price seems to me to be overblown in my opinion; as this would take Texas off the market section by infected section as people down there tell me the screwworm is a logistical problem with infected areas shut down and no cattle allowed to be moved out of the area. This should strengthen cattle prices elsewhere as supplies are now even more limited than they were before. The packer would have to compete for a lower supply of cattle and drive price higher, in my opinion. Feeders may be more limited on that scale as this could take the Texan buyer out of the market. We’ll see! If April Live Cattle can hold settlement, we could see a re-test of resistance at 235.625. Resistance then comes in at 238.125. A breakdown from settlement could see price re-test support at the rising 21-DMA. Support then comes in at 232.75 and then the 100-DMA. If Feeder cattle can hold settlement, it could see price re-test resistance at 358.875. Resistance then comes in at 363.00. A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at 354.55. Support then comes in at 350.20.
The Feeder Cattle Index increased and is at 370.15 as of 01/15/2026.
Boxed beef cutouts were higher as choice cutouts increased 1.61 to 362.38 and select increased 0.48 to 360.19. The choice/ select spread widened and is at 2.19 and the load count was 88.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 92,000, which is above last week’s 86,000 and below last year’s 114,405. Saturday slaughter s expected to be 1,000, which is below last week’s 2,000 and last year’s 2,041. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 562,000, which is above last week’s 553,000 and below last year’s 601,259.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been moderate to active on good demand in Nebraska. Compared to last week, live purchases have been 1.00 higher from 232.00-233.50, mostly 233.00, while dressed purchases have been steady at mostly 365.00. Negotiated cash trade has been moderate on good demand in Kansas and the Western Cornbelt. Compared to last week in Kansas, live purchases have been steady to 1.00 higher at 233.00. Compared to last week in the Western Cornbelt, live purchases have been steady at mostly 232.00. Dressed purchases, when compared to last week, have been steady to 2.00 lower ranging from 360.00-365.00, mostly 363.00-365.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 230.00 – 235.00 and from 360.00 – 368.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.
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Ben DiCostanzo
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