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Hogs Rally
We wrote a 1st half 2026 Grain and Livestock outlook. Sign up through the above link or the QR code down below.
February Lean Hogs opened lower, made the session high at 85.35, and then quickly broke down to the session low at 83.775. It consolidated the rest of the session and settled in the middle of the session’s range at 84.425. Hogs are consolidating, trading in a range from its 86.50 high to Monday’s low at 83.775. It has formed a Rectangle Candlestick pattern as the cash market has pulled back from its strong Christmas rally. Price has not been able to overrun the flattening 100-DMA now at 85.575, constantly pressuring it but unable to hold above it. It has stalled to the downside at its rising short-term moving averages, now challenging the rising 21-DMA which it settled below today at 84.85. Price has been revolving around the key level at 85.325 which it also settled below on Monday. Hog slaughter has been running large and may have helped pressure cash prices. The cash market peaked at Christmas time and has worked lower into the new year. The breakdown may have stabilized as the cutout could have bottomed last week as we are starting to see levels improve. In the WASDE report released on Monday, the USDA increased production for 2026 while showing lower production for 2025 from 2024. It also says exports will increase from 2025, but remain below 2024. US demand is expected to surge, toppling 2024 and 2025 leaving ending stocks even with 2025but below 2024. However, they expect prices to be lower from 2025 but well above 2024. We’ll see!... If price can hold settlement, we could see a re-test of resistance at 85.325. Resistance then comes in at the trading range high and then 87.10. A failure from the settlement could see price test support at 83.325. Support then comes in at the rising 50-DMA now at 82.225.
The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 92.09 as of 01/09/2026.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 80.85 as of 01/08/2026.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 497,000, which is below last week’s 498,000 and above last year’s 483,526.
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
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