Pure Hedge - Livestock and Grain

8/6/26

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I feel the Soybean Oil is on the verge of exploding higher and I bought more of it again today. Supplies are tight and demand is strong. Period. The Cattle Markets came back down to reality, and a $5.00 lower cutout could have contributed to the break today. Today could have been another Packer selling day as well, and I can't imagine that today's price action would be very supportive for the cash market. The US Border will be opened in Arizona in 18-Days and that could weigh on the Cattle Markets as well. This is all why I love the Option Markets; you can take some heat if you are early putting a trade on, but it provides enough flexibility to stay with the trade, knowing your risk the whole time. A $7.00 move or more in the Feeder Futures can get ugly quick. October'26 Feeder Cattle settled at 331.95, just 44 cents above the 50% retracement level. I am still very Bullish the Soybean Oil, and Bearish the Cattle Markets for now. There are trade examples from Tuesday below, along with older commentary and older trade examples at the bottom of the page. Give me a call if you have any questions. Have a great night. 

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8/4/26

TUESDAYS TRADE EXAMPLES

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OLDER COMMENTARY AND TRADES BELOW

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7/30/26

The Cattle Markets have a decision to make again, and the Funds and the Packers might make it for them. Tomorrow is the last trading day of the month, and it could turn into a race lower if the Funds continue to liquidate, or if the Packers try to knock it down again to justify lower prices in the cash market. We will see what happens tomorrow, but prices are not staying here. I still like the downside for now. The Funds started buying a bunch of Soybeans, Soybean Meal, and Soybean Oil early last week, and this past Sunday night those three commodities traded lower overnight. Monday morning the Funds began to liquidate their long positions in those three contracts. November'26 Soybean have been down three out of the last four days, giving back 64 ¾ cents. December'26 Soybean Meal has been down three out of the last four days as well, giving back 12.4. The December'26 Soybean Oil has been down every day this week giving back 4.72. It was lower as well last Friday, and with that included, December'26 Soybean Oil has given back 5.69. The good news is that the losses in the same three contracts were at their least today, compared to any other day this week. The bleeding could be over, and if it does not trade higher tomorrow, then I would buy more of it, and wait for the upswing I see coming Sunday night/Monday morning, especially for the Soybean Oil, as it should find support here, with increasing US demand for biofuels and a tight supply of all Oils. The global demand for Soybean Oil is increasing as well with B-50 mandates that just started early this month. There are already 5% fewer Soybeans planted in India due to the slow to develop monsoon rains, and that is also causing problems for the Palm Oil Crops in Malaysia. Indonesia is planning its own biofuel increases but have not stated anything officially yet. There are already signs of Palm Oil supplies getting tight through the rest of this year and into next, and that would only slow down exports, or worse export controls could be put in place. All while global demand soars. Exports from the Back Sea have slowed as well with Russia and Ukraine increasing attacks on shipping. That has caused exports of sunflower oil, rapeseed, and other grains to fall dramatically from that region. Brazil also has a B15 biofuel mandate and their usage in June was 7% higher than in June of last year, and Brazil's exports of Soybean Oil are up 30% for the first half of this year. Sunflower Seed Oil imports increased 100% from the end of last year through this May, with most of it heading to the EU, and coming out of Argentina. This all points to a sharp increase in demand for all vegetable Oils, especially Soybean Oil. This break was completely fund driven and it should rebound quickly, with a tight supply squeeze with all Oils, skyrocketing demand, with less than a 20-Day global supply of Soybean Oil, and it's getting tighter. Have a great night. 

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7/28/26

Last week I said how the US Government has been trying to get the Cattle prices lower and with an already breaking market, it could choose to open the US Southern Border to Cattle from Mexico, and that could tank the market. 24 hours later that is exactly what happened, and the Feeders closed locked limit down yesterday. I would not be surprised if Fat Cattle crossed the border with the Feeders when it reopens Monday August 24th. It looks like the October'26 Feeder Contract and beyond are months to start selling. Today, I put on the November'26 Feeder Cattle Trade I sent out yesterday. If you are interested, let me know. I think today's Feeder Cattle trade was a simple bounce after a limit move and an opportunity to sell it again, as I believe it could be much lower by the end of the week. There are three days left in the week and the month, and I don't think the Funds, Packers, and new shorts in the market will waste much time before they push it lower. The December'26 Soybean Oil has dropped 4.05 over the last three trading days, and that is enough. US Soybean conditions have dropped 3% down to 63% Good/Excellent, compared to 73% last year. China has continued to buy US Soybeans; Brazil's Soybean Stocks were lowered by more than 1mmt, and Soybean Production and Edible Oil production has dropped globally. India's monsoons have been late to arrive, are already 15% lower than normal, and the delayed rains have already caused a decrease in planting of about 5% in both their Soybean and Cotton crops compared to last season. The monsoon rains are needed for the Palm Oil crops as well. The forecast for China's Edible Oil production has also dropped. China's rapeseed yield has dropped to 3.14mt, and their Sunflower yield has dropped to 1.94mt. The Edible Oil production in Europe has decreased as well, with rapeseed down 100,000mt month over month, sunflower down 450,000mt month over month, and Soybean Oil down 280,000mt month over month and down more than 8% from the year before. It sounds like OPEC+ will curb any production increases for 2026 as well, so that should help keep the Crude Oil prices high. September'26 Crude Oil has dropped 12.93 over the last three days as well, and if there is the slightest problem anywhere in the world, the Crude could shoot right back up again, bringing the Bean Oil up with it, not that it needs any help. This all points to potentially huge upside in the Soybean Oil Market, as demand for vegetable oils skyrockets, for use in both biofuels and edible oils. I feel we could see December'26 Soybean Oil trade into the 80's by the end of the year. It settled at 68.93 today. Give me a call if you have any questions. Have a great night.

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7/23/26

Well, yesterday was just fine, with the Cattle Markets breaking and the Soybean Oil shooting higher. The October'26 Feeders traded through my target level at 330, and I took off all of my short futures and options positions in the Fats and Feeders, and it worked out very well.  Today, the Cattle Markets did not do much, when compared to recent trading days the last couple of weeks. I did put together a couple Bearish Feeder Cattle Trade Examples today, and they are shown below. The Feeder Cattle Index continues to break, and it is expected to be lower again tomorrow. The Cash Market has been quiet, and that does not sound very Bullish. I wonder if the Packers will show up tomorrow and start selling it again, or if the Funds will continue to liquidate before the weekend and the COF Report. The Cattle on Feed Report is tomorrow and if estimates are accurate, 102% on feed does not look Bullish either. The US Government has been trying to get the price of Cattle lower, and with Cattle prices dropping over the last few weeks, any outside pressure could tank the Cattle Markets. If they decided to reopen the Southern border, it could be the last nail in the coffin for a market that settled less than 2-dollars above the 50% retracement level and that made a new 1-month low today. The Soybean Oil traded higher today but slipped from the early morning highs. This market is set to impress, and I anticipate much higher prices in the near-term and the long-term and have built positions in the Options to capture any upside price movement. There are many factors that could slingshot the Soybean Oil higher, and I am starting to see several of those factors moving into place. I feel we could see the December'26 Soybean Oil trade well into the 80.00's, and today it settled at 72.98. I also like a couple Futures Spreads in the Soybean Oil as well. Give me a call and I will show you my target level, and how I plan to capitalize in the Soybean Oil using Futures and Options. I can't wait for tomorrow, have a great night. 

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There is still opportunity in the Option Markets, just give me a call and let me explain how to find it.

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7/21/26

The Cattle Markets had several price swings today, both negatively and positively, with the Fats and Feeders both settling fractionally lower. This past Friday on 7/17 the October'26 Feeder Cattle traded close to my target level at 330 and made a new 1-month low at 330.52 ½. Yesterday the October'26 Feeders settled 7-dollars higher and todays trade did not end up moving the closing price very much but tomorrow is another day. I still like the downside in the Cattle Markets and Yesterday I sent out new trades after the close. I put the trades on for many of you today, and I still recommend them for tomorrow as well, and they are shown below. My 330-target level is not where I think the bottom is, it is a level I like to take profits as I have been short for a while and then put on new short positions from there. If or when the Feeders trade below 330, I feel the selling pace could accelerate and a quick trade down to 321 and then 305 looks possible. The October'26 Feeders are below every moving average, the Feeder Cattle Index continues to plummet, export numbers are bad, imports are strong, and the cash market has dried up, with 232's trading in the cash market today, so I like it lower from here. As anticipated the Feeder Cattle Index was down 3.49 to 356.22. It is expected to be lower again tomorrow as well. Waiting for the markets to change is not the best business plan, so take action now, and give me a call. The Cattle on Feed Report is just three days away, and I can have your account open before the report if you call me. Yesterday's still recommended Trades are below. I feel the Soybean Oil Market is a buy here and I plan to buy it again in the Option Market tomorrow morning. If you are interested in seeing my trade ideas, just give me a call. Have a great night. 

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I am also Bullish the Sugar #11 and Coffee Markets. Call for more information.

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7/14/26

My normal writing schedule will be pushed back another week. There are trades below that were structured and sent out one week ago on 7/7. Take a look and tell me what you think. The Cattle Markets have continued to trade lower and my target level in the Feeders is 330, and it won't take much to get there. The Grain Markets looked to be in suspended animation today, along with being overvalued. The Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Markets I like lower. The Soybean Oil Market had a minor pullback today, which was a buying opportunity, and I hope you took advantage of it. December'26 Soybean Oil settled today at 70.68, and I feel we can see it trade much higher. If you would like to hear my target level, just give me a call. There is still time to capture some of the market movement that I see coming in a few of these markets, but I would not waste much more time. Give me a call. Today's Feeder Cattle Trades are shown below, along with the Boxed Beef and Feeder Cattle Index. Last Week's Trades are shown below those. Watch the Sugar #11 Market as well. Happy trading… Have a great night. 

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Boxed Beef

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FEEDER CATTLE INDEX

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7/23/26 FEEDER CATTLE TRADE EXAMPLES BELOW. 

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7/20/26 LIVE CATTLE AND FEEDER CATTLE TRADE EXAMPLES BELOW.

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THESE WERE SENT OUT TODAY 7/14/26 BEFORE THE OPEN. OLDER TRADES ARE BELOW THESE. 

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Live Cattle Trades Below From 7/7/26

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Feeder Cattle Trades Below From 7/7/26

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IT IS TIME TO CALL ME

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NOW IS THE TIME TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT BEFORE IT IS JULY AGAIN - NEVERMIND ITS ALWAYS EASIER DURING HARVEST

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BELOW IS A DIRECT LINK TO FILL OUT ACCOUNT PAPERWORK - PLEASE CALL ME IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS.

https://portal2.straitsfinancial.com/Identity/Account/Register?brokerId=978

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GOD BLESS AMERICA

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Give me a call if you have any questions.

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Bill Allen

Vice President

Pure Hedge Division 

Direct: 312-957-8079

ballen@walshtrading.com

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