Sign Up to receive Walsh Trading’s 1st Half of 2026 Market Outlook - First Half of 2026 Outlook
If you would like to receive more information on the commodity markets, please use the link to join our email list - SIgn Up Now
For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays, and my next webinar will be Tuesday, January 13, 2026, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
We wrote a 1st half 2026 Grain and Livestock outlook. Sign up through the above link or the QR code down below.
It was a sour end to the first full week of trading in 2026 as weaker cash expectations for cattle saw traders pressure futures. This kept Feeders from taking advantage of stronger feeder prices as it faded in sympathy with the Live Cattle market. February Live Cattle opened lower and made an early attempt to rally, trading up to resistance at 235.625, making the high at that level. It turned lower, trading to the low by early afternoon at 233.125 and then limping higher into the close, settling near the low at 233.725. The price action stopped just short of taking out Thursday’s low, forming an inside candlestick. The low was just above support at 232.75 and formed a Tweezer Bottom formation. The Highs from earlier in the week formed a Tweezer Top and price responded with downside price action. With a Tweezer Bottom in place, we could see consolidation from that 237.475 top to Thursday’s low at 233.125 until we get some clarity from the cash market. March Feeder Cattle opened lower and rallied to the high at 358.85. The rally took price to resistance at 358.875 where the market turned lower and broke down to the low by noontime at 353.65. The breakdown took price below support at 354.55, stopping above the 8-DMA now at 353.275. It saw a slight recovery into the close settling at 354.70, which is just above the key level. Feeders are consolidating between the Tuesday high at 359.40 and the Thursday low at 353.35. The feeder index has been on a bull run since the beginning of the year, rallying almost 18 handles to yesterday’s peak at 368.07, while futures have been hesitant to keep up with the cash price action. Auctions in most places have seen soaring prices and great demand as producers in need of product have been aggressive buyers to start the year. Cash cattle however have been more laid back as cutouts have been erratic and the packer has been unwilling to be aggressive buyers and continue to keep slaughter levels below the prior year. This could keep producers under pressure as break evens are starting to soar. Ther seems to be worries the consumer will balk at continued high beef prices as we head into the dead of winter which is keeping bulls at bay. We’ll see! If February Live Cattle can hold settlement, we could see a re-test of resistance at 235.625. Resistance then comes in at 238.125. A breakdown from support at 232.75 could see price test support at 230.425. Support then comes in at 226.60. If Feeder cattle can hold settlement, it could see price re-test resistance at 358.875. Resistance then comes in at 363.00. A breakdown from support at 354.55 could see price test support at 350.20. Support then comes in at the rising 13-DMA now at 348.25.
The Feeder Cattle Index decreased and is at 367.90 as of 01/08/2026.
Boxed beef cutouts were mixed as choice cutouts decreased 1.16 to 355.63 and select ticked higher 0.11 to 352.17. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 3.46 and the load count was 118.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 86,000, which is below last week’s 116,000 and last year’s 105,986. Saturday slaughter s expected to be 2,000, which is below last week’s 33,000 and below last year’s 9,704. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 553,000, which is above last week’s 474,000 and below last year’s 591,422.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states Thus far Friday negotiated cash trade was light on good demand in Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt. Compared to Thursday in Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt live and dressed purchases traded mostly steady from 232.00-233.00, mostly at 232.00 and at 365.00. Trade was limited on moderate demand in Kansas. However, not enough purchases for an adequate market test. The last established market test in Kansas was last week from 229.00-232.00, mostly 232.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 228.00 – 233.00 and from 360.00 – 370.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.
QR Code for our Grain and Livestock Outlook:
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall not be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.
/Technology%20abstract%20by%20TU%20IS%20via%20iStock.jpg)
