If Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marks the beginning of a new geopolitical cycle, then we are still in its early and most volatile phase. History suggests that such transitions last 10–20 years, followed by another decade or more before a new order settles in. By that logic, global stability remains a distant prospect.
What is changing is the battlefield.
Over the past four years, most of the geopolitical pressure has been concentrated in the Eastern Hemisphere, especially in the Middle East, with conflicts involving Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah, rising tensions in Lebanon, Iran, and Syria, and, of course, Eastern Europe with the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
That changed last Saturday: the U.S. special forces operation in Venezuela to capture the country's president and his wife has led some observers to argue that Washington is reviving a modern version of the Monroe Doctrine, under which the U.S. seeks to reaffirm and strengthen its dominance in the Western Hemisphere.
If this is indeed the case and the U.S. is seeking to reassert its control over the Western Hemisphere, similar operations could take place in other Latin American countries. The big question is how China and Russia will respond, especially given the potential loss of their investments and influence in the region.
For now, however, markets appear unconcerned about the potential risks. The continued rally in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones suggests that investors are not pricing in a systemic escalation or a modern Cuban Missile Crisis. Rather, they seem to anticipate a controlled exchange of concessions — a geopolitical “tit for tat.”
In the case of China, the U.S. could continue supplying oil and tolerate Beijing’s geopolitical ambitions, as long as China does not weaponize rare‑earth exports and accepts Venezuela’s return to the U.S. sphere of influence. As for Russia, according to AP News, its officials indicated as early as 2019 that Moscow could reduce its support for Nicolás Maduro in exchange for greater freedom of action in Ukraine, a point later confirmed by Fiona Hill, then advisor to President Trump.
Donald Trump’s claims regarding Greenland pose a different challenge, as they directly touch on European interests. What kind of geopolitical “exchange” could arise here remains uncertain.
So where could all of this lead?
If more countries start seeing the United States not as a security guarantor but as a threat, we could witness an accelerated shift away from dollar-denominated assets toward alternatives, including the Chinese yuan. Gold (XAUUSD) is also likely to benefit from this trend.
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