Groupon's Second Consecutive Quarter of Underperformance Could Redefine What Turnaround Means Here

Groupon, Inc. (NASDAQ: GRPN) reports second quarter 2026 earnings after the close on Thursday, August 6, 2026, with a conference call scheduled for Friday morning. The online marketplace faces a critical test as analysts expect another quarterly loss amid ongoing business challenges. With the stock up sharply over the past year but recent quarters marked by extreme volatility in results, investors will scrutinize whether management can stabilize operations and return to consistent profitability.

Part 1: Earnings Preview

Groupon operates an online and mobile marketplace connecting consumers with local merchants through deals and experiences across North America and internationally. The company generates revenue primarily through commissions on transactions facilitated through its platform, serving both the local deals segment and its goods category.

Groupon is expected to report Q2 2026 results after the close on August 6, 2026, with analysts forecasting an EPS loss of $0.08 on revenue of approximately $127 million. The company most recently reported Q1 2026 results with an actual EPS of -$0.32, representing a significant miss against the -$0.02 consensus estimate. Year-over-year, the expected Q2 loss of -$0.08 would represent a sharp deterioration from the $0.46 profit reported in Q2 2025, reflecting a -117% decline.

Three key themes define this earnings story:

Business Model Stabilization: After posting a massive $2.92 loss in Q3 2025 and continuing losses in Q1 2026, investors are watching whether Groupon can demonstrate progress toward sustainable profitability. The company's guidance for Q2 revenue of $126-128 million suggests management expects sequential improvement, but the path back to consistent earnings remains uncertain.

Revenue Trajectory and Guidance: Groupon lowered its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $513-523 million from a prior range of $513-523 million, signaling caution about near-term growth prospects. With Q2 revenue estimates of $127 million, investors will focus on whether the company can meet its narrowed guidance range and what commentary management provides about demand trends.

Turnaround Execution: The extreme volatility in recent quarterly results—ranging from a $2.92 loss to a $0.46 profit—raises questions about operational consistency. Analysts are looking for evidence that management's restructuring efforts are gaining traction and that the business can deliver predictable results going forward.

Analyst commentary ahead of the release reflects cautious optimism tempered by recent execution challenges. The consensus has shifted more negative, with estimates for Q2 calling for a loss compared to last year's profit, though analysts project meaningful improvement in the second half of 2026 and into 2027.

Part 2: Historical Earnings Performance

Groupon's recent earnings history reveals a pattern of extreme volatility and frequent estimate misses. Over the past four quarters, the company has delivered two massive surprises in opposite directions and two significant disappointments.

In Q2 2025, Groupon posted earnings of $0.46 against a -$0.02 estimate, representing a stunning +2,400% surprise. The company followed this with its worst quarter on record in Q3 2025, reporting a -$2.92 loss against a $0.01 estimate. Q4 2025 brought relative stability with $0.17 matching the $0.17 estimate exactly, but Q1 2026 saw another major disappointment with -$0.32 versus the -$0.02 consensus, a -1,500% miss.

The pattern suggests significant operational unpredictability, with the company swinging from large beats to catastrophic misses. The most recent quarter's substantial loss and miss indicate ongoing challenges in achieving consistent profitability, making the upcoming Q2 report critical for demonstrating whether management can stabilize performance or if the volatility will continue.

Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.

Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings

Groupon reports after market close, meaning Day 0 reflects anticipatory trading before results are released, while Day +1 captures the market's first full reaction to the actual numbers.

Historical price action around Groupon earnings shows extreme volatility, with an average absolute Day +1 move of 21.57%—among the highest in the market. The stock has demonstrated particularly dramatic reactions following positive surprises, with the May 2025 report triggering a +42.58% Day +1 surge and the August 2025 beat producing a +20.28% gain. Conversely, disappointing results have led to sharp selloffs, including a -27.03% decline following the November 2024 report.

The Day 0 average move of 3.48% is relatively modest compared to the Day +1 reaction of 21.57%, consistent with after-hours reporting where the full market response materializes the following session. The most recent earnings in May 2026 saw a -2.46% Day 0 decline followed by a +15.01% Day +1 rally, suggesting the market initially feared the worst but found reasons for optimism in the details. Given this history, investors should prepare for significant volatility following Thursday's after-hours release.

Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move

The options market is pricing an expected move of 17.49% through the August 21 expiration, slightly below the stock's 21.57% average Day +1 move following recent earnings reports. This suggests options traders are anticipating substantial volatility but perhaps slightly less extreme than the historical pattern, though the stock's track record of outsized reactions means the actual move could easily exceed the implied range.

Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying

Analyst sentiment on Groupon reflects a divided outlook, with the consensus rating at 3.60 (between Hold and Buy) based on 5 analysts. The breakdown shows 2 Strong Buys, 1 Moderate Buy, 1 Hold, and 1 Strong Sell, indicating significant disagreement about the stock's prospects. The average price target of $25.80 sits below the current price of $27.29, implying -5.5% downside, though estimates range widely from a low of $13.00 to a high of $40.00.

Analyst sentiment has remained unchanged over the past month, with the rating distribution holding steady at the same 2-1-1-0-1 split. This stability suggests analysts are waiting for the upcoming earnings report to reassess their views rather than making preemptive changes. The wide dispersion in price targets—spanning from $13 to $40—reflects the fundamental uncertainty around Groupon's turnaround prospects and ability to return to sustainable profitability.

The consensus implies modest downside from current levels, but the bearish price target relative to the stock's recent rally suggests analysts remain cautious about whether the gains can be sustained without demonstrable improvement in operating performance and earnings consistency.

Part 4: Technical Picture

Groupon enters earnings with strong technical momentum, trading at $27.29 and positioned above all major moving averages. The stock sits above its 10-day ($27.20), 20-day ($26.90), 50-day ($22.75), 100-day ($18.34), and 200-day ($17.25) moving averages, though it has pulled back slightly below the 5-day average of $27.58. This configuration reflects a powerful uptrend, with the stock up approximately 58% from its 200-day moving average.

The Barchart Technical Opinion shows maximum bullish conviction at 100% Buy, unchanged from last week's 100% Buy reading but strengthened from last month's 88% Buy signal. This improvement over the past month indicates building positive momentum heading into the earnings event.

Timeframe Analysis:

• Short-term (100% Buy): Maximum buy signal indicates very strong near-term momentum supporting the stock into earnings
• Medium-term (100% Buy): Continued strength in the intermediate timeframe suggests the uptrend is well-established beyond just short-term trading
• Long-term (100% Buy): Maximum bullish reading across the longer timeframe confirms this is a sustained trend rather than a temporary spike

Trend Characteristics: The combination of Maximum strength and Average direction suggests the stock is in a powerful uptrend with typical directional consistency, providing a supportive technical backdrop for the earnings release.

The technical setup is decidedly supportive heading into Thursday's report, with the stock in a confirmed uptrend across all timeframes and trading well above key moving averages. The 50-day average at $22.75 now serves as potential support roughly 17% below current levels. However, the strong pre-earnings rally also means the stock has less room for disappointment—any earnings miss or weak guidance could trigger profit-taking given the substantial year-to-date gains. The slight pullback below the 5-day moving average suggests some near-term consolidation, but the overall technical picture remains constructive for bulls willing to hold through the volatility.