Can FIGS Keep Pretending Healthcare Workers Won't Notice the Tariff Math?

FIGS, Inc. (NYSE: FIGS) reports second-quarter 2026 earnings after market close on August 6, 2026. The healthcare apparel company has delivered four consecutive quarters of earnings beats, but investors will be watching closely to see if management can sustain the momentum that drove a stunning 400% surprise in Q4 2025. With analysts expecting $0.07 per share on revenue of approximately $186 million, the question is whether FIGS can continue its remarkable turnaround trajectory.

Part 1: Earnings Preview

FIGS, Inc. designs and sells direct-to-consumer healthcare apparel and lifestyle products, primarily scrubs and related medical wear. The company has built a loyal following among healthcare professionals through its focus on technical fabrics, modern design, and digital-first distribution model.

For the second quarter ending June 2026, analysts expect FIGS to report $0.07 per share on revenue of approximately $186.11 million. The company most recently reported $0.03 per share for Q1 2026, beating the $0.01 estimate by 200%. The current consensus represents +75% growth compared to the $0.04 reported in Q2 2025, reflecting expectations for continued operational improvement.

Three key themes define this earnings story:

Profitability Inflection: After years of investment-driven margin pressure, FIGS appears to have turned a corner. The company delivered a stunning $0.10 per share in Q4 2025—quintupling estimates—and has now beaten expectations in four straight quarters by an average of 212%. Investors will scrutinize whether this represents sustainable operational leverage or temporary cost management.

Revenue Growth Acceleration: Analysts project 21.9% year-over-year revenue growth for Q2, a significant acceleration from the mid-single-digit growth rates that characterized much of 2024 and early 2025. The question is whether FIGS has successfully reignited demand through product innovation and marketing effectiveness, or if easier comparisons are flattering the numbers.

Full-Year Guidance: With consensus estimates for 2026 now at $0.26 per share (up from $0.19 earlier in the year), management's updated outlook will be critical. Analysts have been steadily raising estimates—the Q2 consensus has climbed from $0.04 to $0.07 over the past 90 days—suggesting growing confidence in the business trajectory.

Analyst commentary ahead of the release reflects cautious optimism. The Street has maintained a balanced stance with 5 Strong Buy ratings and 5 Hold ratings, suggesting conviction among bulls but lingering skepticism among others. The focus will be on whether FIGS can demonstrate that its recent profitability surge is structural rather than cyclical, and whether the company can sustain double-digit revenue growth as it laps increasingly difficult comparisons in the back half of 2026.

Part 2: Historical Earnings Performance

FIGS has established a clear pattern of exceeding expectations, delivering earnings beats in each of the past four quarters. The magnitude of these surprises has been remarkable: +100% in Q2 2025, +150% in Q3 2025, +400% in Q4 2025, and +200% in Q1 2026. This consistent outperformance suggests either conservative analyst modeling or genuine operational improvements that the Street has been slow to recognize.

The trend shows accelerating profitability through late 2025 before moderating in early 2026. The company reported $0.04, $0.05, and $0.10 in the three quarters through Q4 2025, then $0.03 in Q1 2026. While the Q1 figure represents a sequential decline, it still doubled analyst expectations and came against what is typically a seasonally softer period for healthcare apparel.

The pattern of dramatic beats—averaging over 200% across the past four quarters—creates both opportunity and risk heading into Q2. On one hand, FIGS has demonstrated an ability to consistently exceed lowered expectations. On the other, the Street has been raising estimates aggressively (Q2 consensus up 75% from the prior year), potentially setting a higher bar that could prove more difficult to clear.

Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.

Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings

FIGS reports after market close, meaning Day 0 captures anticipatory trading before results are released, while Day +1 reflects the market's first full session to digest the actual numbers.

Historical price action around FIGS earnings has been volatile and directionally inconsistent. The stock has averaged a 4.64% absolute move on Day 0 and a much larger 18.20% absolute move on Day +1, indicating that the real price discovery happens after results are released rather than in anticipation.

The most recent earnings cycles show dramatic swings. In February 2026, FIGS surged 13.78% on Day 0 and extended gains another 23.90% on Day +1 following the blockbuster Q4 results. However, May 2026 told a different story: the stock gained 6.00% on Day 0 but then reversed sharply, falling 24.33% on Day +1 despite beating estimates. This suggests investors may have been disappointed by guidance or forward-looking commentary even as the company exceeded quarterly expectations.

The historical pattern shows Day +1 moves ranging from a 28.34% decline (November 2024) to a 23.90% gain (February 2026), with an average intraday range of 15.01%. This extreme volatility reflects the market's ongoing debate about FIGS' business trajectory and valuation. Investors should prepare for significant price movement regardless of whether the company beats or misses estimates, as guidance and management commentary appear to drive outcomes as much as the headline numbers.

Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move

The options market is pricing a 14.79% expected move through the August 21 expiration, implying a range of $9.31 to $12.54. This is somewhat below the stock's average Day +1 move of 18.20% following recent earnings reports, suggesting options traders may be underpricing potential volatility. Given FIGS' history of 20%+ post-earnings swings in three of the past six reports, the actual move could exceed what options are currently pricing.

Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying

Analysts maintain a Buy-equivalent rating on FIGS with an average recommendation of 4.00 on the five-point scale. The consensus is evenly split between conviction and caution: 5 Strong Buy ratings are balanced by 5 Hold ratings, with no sell recommendations. This polarization reflects the ongoing debate about whether FIGS' recent profitability improvements are sustainable.

The average price target of $16.89 implies 55% upside from the current price of $10.92, with estimates ranging from a low of $11.00 to a high of $22.00. This wide range—spanning from minimal upside to more than doubling—underscores the uncertainty around the company's valuation and growth trajectory.

Analyst sentiment has remained unchanged over the past month, suggesting the Street is in wait-and-see mode ahead of Q2 results. The lack of recent rating changes indicates analysts are comfortable with their current positions and are looking for the upcoming earnings report to provide clarity on whether the profitability inflection is durable. The fact that estimates have been rising (Q2 consensus up from $0.04 to $0.07 over 90 days, full-year 2026 up from $0.19 to $0.26) while ratings hold steady suggests analysts are gaining confidence in the numbers but remain cautious about getting more aggressive on recommendations until the trend is further validated.

Part 4: Technical Picture

FIGS enters earnings with a 72% Sell signal from the Barchart Technical Opinion, unchanged from both one week and one month ago. This bearish technical backdrop reflects the stock's struggle to regain momentum after the sharp May selloff.

Timeframe Analysis:

• Short-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal suggests near-term momentum remains negative, though not at extreme levels
• Medium-term (100% Sell): Strong sell signal indicates clear weakness in the intermediate trend, reflecting the stock's inability to sustain rallies
• Long-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal shows the longer-term trend has deteriorated from earlier strength

Trend Characteristics: The technical environment shows average strength but is weakening, creating a challenging setup heading into earnings as the stock lacks the momentum typically associated with positive post-earnings follow-through.

The stock is trading at $10.92, positioned above its short-term moving averages (5-day at $10.77, 10-day at $10.34, 20-day at $10.23) but below all longer-term averages (50-day at $10.96, 100-day at $12.62, 200-day at $11.83). This configuration—above short-term support but below longer-term resistance—suggests a stock attempting to stabilize after significant weakness but facing overhead supply. The 50-day moving average at $10.96 represents immediate resistance just 0.4% above current levels, while the 200-day at $11.83 marks a more significant hurdle 8.3% higher. Given the bearish technical signals and the stock's position below key long-term averages, the technical setup is cautionary heading into earnings. FIGS will likely need a significant positive surprise and strong guidance to break through overhead resistance and shift the technical picture from deteriorating to improving.