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February Lean Hogs opened higher, down ticked to the low at 84.60 and reversed course, grinding higher the rest of the session to the high at 85.425. It settled near the high at 85.35. The rally took price just above resistance at 85.325 and the open tested Friday’s close. The Hog market worked higher in front of the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report that comes out after the close on Tuesday. Strong slaughter and production have been met by higher cutout prices lending support to futures as demand for pork has been strong with exports leading the way. With the government shutdown over and exports playing catchup to the current time period, the USDA has reported that export value for pork has stayed steady with last September while volume is down slightly from last year’s. Overall exports are down 3% in both value and volume from last year’s record pace and down just 1% if you exclude China. Mexico continues to be our best customer, with exports already topping $2 billion and it and Central America are expected to reach new annual highs by the end of the year. We have also seen higher exports for the first 3-quarters to Columbia, the Caribbean, Hong Kong and Vietnam. China is down for the count due to its high retaliatory tariffs. Japan and south Korea are also down from last year. With Spain suffering from the African Swine Fever, expectations are building that demand will improve from those three countries going forward. Estimates for the Hogs and Pigs report show hog inventory down 1%, Breeding inventory down 1.2% and market hogs down .9% year over year. Pigs per litter up .8% and the September – November pig crop down 1.3% from last year. We’ll see!... If price can hold settlement, we could see a test of resistance at the 100-DMA on the continuous chart at 86.30. Resistance then comes in at 87.10. A failure from settlement could see price test support at the rising 8-DMA now at 84.30 on the continuous chart. Support then comes in at rising 13-DMA now at 83.475 and the nearby key level at 83.325.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 98.77 as of 12/19/2025.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 83.73 as of 12/11/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 496,000, which is above last week’s 479,000 and last year’s 489,705.
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
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