Shootin' the Bull about beef production into the first quarter

“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

​12/22/2025

Live Cattle:

With 11.7 million head on feed and all going to be fed longer, beef production through the first quarter is expected to be elevated.  With November having produced such significant price fluctuation and introduction of factors, cattlemen may have well been just a little apprehensive about placing cattle.  I think it possible a portion of what is missing in November may find its way in December.  I don't expect much to take place this week. 

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Feeder Cattle:

​Futures traders are expected to keep about the same basis distance going through the holidays from cash.  Cattle feeders are being divided with fewer cattle on feed in the south and more in the north.  The length of time the Mexican border has been closed suggests that production practices have shifted in the south and may not return to what was believed normal prior to the border being closed. A great deal of cattle have changed hands the past two weeks and a great deal of sideways trading in the futures market.  Those marketing are doing so very close to historical highs in feeder cattle and new historical highs in some of the lighter weight categories.  Those procuring are doing so very close to historical highs in feeder cattle and new historical highs in some of the lighter weight categories.  With basis still a hefty positive, the new owners have not only paid the higher price on the cash market, but nowhere to lay off risk, but at a discount.     

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​Corn:

​All were able to remain plus on the day.  Other than that, it was really quiet.  

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Energy:​

​Energy was higher, but mostly crude oil.  The diesel fuel gave back most of its gains and the weakness in diesel fuel is bothersome.  I anticipate energy will resume its down trend. 

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Bonds:

​Bonds are soft, but not by much.  The range today is quiet.  I don't expect much until the first of the year and a new Fed Chairman is appointed.  

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​​​​​​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.