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The cattle markets ended the week with a strong rally in front of the Cattle on Feed report. February Live Cattle opened higher, ticked down to the low at 228.875 and rallied to the high at 232.075. The rally stalled just below resistance at 232.75 and pulled back into the close and settled at 230.80. March Feeder Cattle took over as the lead contract as its volume overtook the volume of the January contract. It opened higher and down ticked to its low at 334.95. It surged and rallied to its high at 341.45. It pulled back from its high and settled at 339.40. The rally took price to resistance at 341.05 and it held with the pullback into the close. The markets bounced back on Friday after cash trade took place on Thursday as the packer was able to get steady prices with Thursday’s early breakdown as producers caved a day before the Cattle on Feed report. With slaughter expected lower than the previous two week’s producers jumped at packer bids as they feared they would back off their steady prices as the cutout has been flailing all week. With cash trade all but complete futures bounced as selling pressure was minimized and shorts were in trouble as the bullish expectations for the report won out and short-covering ensued. Shorts were in my opinion right to lighten their positions as I believe the lower placement number is bullish for the market going forward(see below). The Feeder Index has surged since breaking down in November. It is back above 350.00 with little cash trading expected the next two weeks as we move towards the holidays. This has kept futures in a range but we were able to see a strong recovery on Friday the bullish expectations for the Cattle on Feed report won out on Friday. The Friday cutout also showed signs of life, surging on Friday to its highest level in two weeks. This provides hope that with cash trade to take place sporadically the next two weeks and lower slaughter because of the holidays, that prices will be steady to higher as we move towards the new year. We’ll see! February Live Cattle is back in the upper end of its recent trading range. If Live Cattle can hold settlement, we could see a test of resistance at 232.75. Resistance then comes in at the 235.625. A breakdown from settlement could see a test of support at the declining 50-DMA now at 228.50. A test of the 50-DMA would close the gap. Support then comes in at the 100-DMA now at 230.675. March Feeder Cattle is below resistance at 341.05 on the continuous chart. A breakout above here could see price test resistance at 344.675. The 100-DMA is next at 345.925. A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at 337.575. Support then comes in at 335.975.
The Feeder Cattle Index increased and is at 351.18 as of 12/18/2025. (estimated – CME hasn’t published)
Boxed beef cutouts were higher as choice cutouts surged 4.35 to 361.63 and select jumped 2.05 to 346.02. The choice/ select spread widened and is at 15.61 and the load count was 98.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 108,000, which is above last week’s 105,000 and below last year’s 117,185. Saturday slaughter s expected to be 7,000, which is even with last week and below last year’s 14,801. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 587,000, which is below last week’s 596,000 and last year’s 615,629.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been light on moderate demand in the Western Cornbelt. Compared to Thursday, live purchases have been steady at 228.00. The last established dressed market in the Western Cornbelt was Thursday from 356.00-358.00. Negotiated cash trade has been limited on moderate demand in Nebraska. There have been a few live purchases at 228.00, but not enough for an adequate market test. The last established market test in Nebraska was Thursday with live purchases at 228.00 and dressed purchases from 356.00-358.00. Negotiated cash trade has been mostly inactive on moderate demand in Kansas. The last established market in Kansas was last week at 230.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 220.00 – 230.00 and from 354.00 – 363.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.
United States Cattle on Feed Down 2 Percent
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on December 1, 2025. The inventory was 2 percent below December 1, 2024.
Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.60 million head, 11 percent below 2024. Net placements were 1.54 million head. Placements were the lowest for November since the series began in 1996. During November, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 435,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 375,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 320,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 255,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 130,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 80,000 head.
Marketings of fed cattle during November totaled 1.52 million head, 12 percent below 2024. Marketings were the second lowest for November since the series began in 1996.
Other disappearance totaled 53,000 head during November, 4 percent below 2024.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
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