Cattle Markets Lower on Profit Taking

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The cattle markets ended the week with some profit taking as strong cash markets were balanced against strong resistance in the futures markets. The Fat market saw cash trading at 230.00 on a live basis and 356.00 on a dressed basis to end the week with its highest cash prices in weeks. The Feeder market saw the index make a new high for the week at 346.77, its highest since early November. The futures markets have rallied from their lows to long-term resistance levels. The February Live Cattle market broached its 100-DMA on the continuous chart on Thursday and Friday and faltered, settling below it. The January Feeder Cattle neared its 100-DMA on the continuous chart and broke down and settled well below it. Feeders actually put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick formation at the top of a rally. This could lead to a test of support down at 332.075 if there is follow-through selling. Both markets made gaps to the upside on Wednesday and Thursday and partially closed them on Friday. Both markets have bearish downward crosses of long-term moving averages with the 50-DMA below the 100-DMA. The markets rallied to these levels and pulled back. The Feeder market partially closed its downside gap and pulled back. We are nearing short trading weeks and tested resistance. Next week is the week likely to see cash firm but with the holiday weeks coming and the end of the year getting closer, trading will stall and the price action could see consolidation as traders could postpone making long-term trading decisions until the start of the new year. The cash market recovery is a welcomed sight for producers. It gives hope that better times could be coming as we get into the new year. The packing industry has increased slaughter as they likely have been doing well in the profit/loss arena even as cutouts have sagged. It looks like the retailer has been able to control the price action with the higher slaughter numbers but with cash still well off their all-time highs and primes and choice dominating the cutout, the packer has been willing to put in larger slaughter volumes as we near the short weeks. We have one full week of trading left and slaughter is expected to remain near the current levels of the past two weeks. I expect the market to be choppy with good trading ranges but likely lead nowhere and stay in a wide enough trading range to keep people interested. We’ll see! February Live Cattle made its high at 230.975 and the low came in at 229.05. Settlement was near the low at 229.55. If Live Cattle can hold settlement, we could see a re-test of the 100-DMA now at 230.425. Resistance then comes in at the December 11^th high at 231.775 and then 232.075. A breakdown from settlement could see a test of support at the declining 50-DMA now at 228.50. A test of the 50-DMA would close the gap. Support then comes in at the rising 8-DMA now at 227.025. January Feeder Cattle saw its high at 344.925 and its low at 339.00. Settlement was close to the low at 339.10. Feeder Cattle settled below the declining 50-DMA now at 340.20. A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at 337.575. This would close its gap. Support then comes in at 335.975.

The Feeder Cattle Index increased and is at 346.77 as of 12/11/2025. 

Boxed beef cutouts were mixed as choice cutouts decreased 0.67 to 357.44 and select increased 0.76 to 344.22. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 13.32 and the load count was 120.

Friday’s estimated slaughter is 105,000, which is below last week’s 115,000 and last year’s 115,388. Saturday slaughter s expected to be 7,000, which is below last week’s 10,000 and above last year’s 5,598. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 596,000, which is below last week’s 600,000 and last year’s 609,630.

The USDA report LM_Ct131 states So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in all feeding regions. The last established market in Kansas was Thursday at 230.00. The last established market in Nebraska was Thursday with live purchases at 230.00 and dressed purchases at 355.00. The last established live market in the Western Cornbelt was Thursday at mostly 230.00. The last established dressed market in the Western Cornbelt was last week from 340.00-345.00.

The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 222.00 – 230.00 and from 345.00 – 356.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.

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Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

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