Time to buy December 2026 corn -- just under the 200-day moving average

I am Stephen Davis, senior market strategist at Walsh Trading, Inc., Chicago, Illinois. You can reach me at 312-878-2391.

Today December 2026 corn futures fell below the 200-day moving average to end at 464.0. Several agricultural reports were released by the government this month with another due August 12.

The August 3 Crop Progress report released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) showed a 2% decline in corn rated "good or excellent," now at 61%. Corn rated "poor or very poor" increased by 2% week-over-week to 14%. 

Meanwhile, a report issued today by the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) says, “In the Corn Belt, a cold front crossing the upper Midwest is generating showers and thunderstorms. … In advance of the cold front, warm, dry weather is promoting corn and soybean development.” Previously, in the western Corn Belt, heat had been "a factor in declining crop conditions, as temperatures reached 95°F or higher in many Midwestern areas west of the Mississippi River," according to the USDA's Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin dated August 1.

A trade strategy is to buy December 2026 corn at today's low of 464.0, good til cancelled (GTC). Risk the trade to 454.0 stop, GTC ($500 risk per contract). Profit objective is 484.0, GTC. Profit potential is $1,000 per contract. 

An option trade strategy is to buy September 2026 corn 450 call at 5.6, which was today's settlement price for this option. September 2026 corn futures closed today at 442.2. These options expire on August 21, 2026.

In my opinion, there is enough time for September 2026 corn to go back up and make this option strategy profitable. Peruse the WOAB's next World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report due on August 12 and let that inform you before the option expires.

To discuss trading strategies, contact me anytime. Have an excellent day. 

Stephen Davis
Senior Market Strategist 
Walsh Trading

Direct 312 878 2391 
Toll Free 800 556 9411
sdavis@walshtrading.com  
www.walshtrading.com

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