Cattle Markets Rally to End Week on a Strong Note

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The cattle markets ended the week on a high note as strong cash markets are back. Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle both gap opened higher, retraced to close the gap and then rallied. Live Cattle rallied to an early high before breaking down to the session low at 224.125 as cutouts were lower giving bears temporary control of the market. Cash market strength sent prices higher the rest of the session as talk at the end of the session of packer giving 225.00 and 226.00 gave bulls control taking out the early high and making the high at the end of the session at 227.375. It settled near the high at 227.15. January Feeder Cattle rallied to its high early in the session at 340.075 and then broke down to its low at 336.65. It was able to grudgingly turn higher but was unable to make a new high settling in the upper end of the trading range at 339.05. The feeder market has staged a remarkable turnaround as the Feeder Index has surged since making its low on Friday at 318.76, reaching 343.73 after the close on Friday. Futures however, stalled just under the gap low at 340.50 established on October 24^th. The gap high is at 348.175 from the 24^th. This has put the futures at a discount to the index after briefly trading at a premium to the index. Trade in the cash should wane as we near the end of the year and depending on where trade occurs, we could see some volatility in the index. Bulls ended the week in control of the market but have hurdles up above for Live Cattle as we have a downward cross with the 50-DMA below the 100-DMA on the continuous chart. The 50-DMA is at 229.125 and the 100-DMA is just above it at 230.15. So, it could be a tough stretch for bulls from here. The fundamentals seem to have come back into vogue in the cash markets as producers have been aggressive on the Feeder front and the packer on the fat front as tight supplies are back in the limelight after all the political backlash that has taken its toll on the markets. The screwworm is back as the USDA has confirmed another case within 120 miles of the US border. This likely keeps the border closed for longer than border opening optimists have been suggesting. Many were expecting the border to be open by now but the cautious USDA has been very deliberate on this front and with this new case of screwworm they will push the opening down the road in all probability. Remember the border was closed last November when cold weather was present in the US. The screwworm activity close to the border should delay any thoughts of a cold weather opening. It seems the Mexicans continue to bring cattle up from the south and the risk of even more cattle coming from the south is real if the border opens prematurely. The packer must be making good money on cattle purchases as slaughter has surged this week to an unexpected estimated 600,000. They must have lots of orders to fill which likely indicates demand for beef remains strong even as cutout prices continue to falter. The retail industry must have more control over the market as the packer can’t drive cutouts higher and now cash is in recovery mode, oh no…..We’ll see! If Live Cattle can hold settlement, we could see a test of the declining 50-DMA. Resistance then comes in at the 100-DMA. A breakdown from settlement could see a test of support at 226.60. Support then comes in at 224.55. If Feeder Cattle holds settlement, it could test resistance at 341.05. There are more hurdles withing the gap with the 50-DMA below the 100-DMA  and the 50 is at 341.925 and the 100 is at 345.025. A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at 337.575. Support then comes in at 335.975.

The Feeder Cattle Index increased and is at 343.73 as of 12/04/2025. 

Boxed beef cutouts were lower as choice cutouts decreased 1.52 to 361.20 and select fell 2.93 to 347.39. The choice/ select spread widened and is at 13.81 and the load count was 152.

Friday’s estimated slaughter is 115,000, which is above last week’s 109,000 and below last year’s 118,214. Saturday slaughter s expected to be 10,000, which is below last week’s 19,000 and above last year’s 10,995. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 600,000, which is above last week’s 498,000 and below last year’s 614,183.

The USDA report LM_Ct131 states So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been light on moderate to good demand in Nebraska. Compared to Thursday, live purchases have been 5.00 higher at 225.00. The last established dressed market in Nebraska was Thursday from 340.00-345.00. Negotiated cash trade has been limited on moderate demand in the Western Cornbelt. There have been a few live purchases from 220.00-222.00, but not enough for an adequate market test. The last established market test in the Western Cornbelt was Thursday with live purchases at mostly 220.00 and dressed purchases from 340.00-345.00. Negotiated cash trade has been inactive on light demand in Kansas. The last established market in Kansas was last week at 220.00. Last weeks market in the Texas Panhandle was from 215.00-220.00.

The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 215.00 – 225.00 and from 340.00 – 345.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.

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Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

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