Soybeans Breakdown and Cattle Breakout!

Weekly Grain Market Summary

Tuesday’s WASDE estimates at the bottom of this page

Market Overview

Grain markets experienced choppy trading throughout the week before finishing uniformly lower on Friday. March corn futures closed down 2½ cents at 444¾, losing 3 cents for the week. January soybeans dropped 14¼ cents to settle at 1105¼, marking a 32½ cent weekly decline—the first weekly loss in eight weeks. March Chicago wheat fell 4½ cents to 535¾, down 2¾ cents on the week.

SOYBEANS

U.S. Market Developments: U.S.-China trade relations showed significant improvement over the last several weeks. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated trade relations with China have stabilized, though he emphasized the need for more balanced, smaller-scale trade focused on non-sensitive goods.

South American Production: Brazil’s soybean planting for 2025/26 reached 89% of expected area as of late November, up 8 percentage points from the previous week but lagging last year’s 91%. Irregular rainfall continues to impact key producing states including Mato Grosso, Goias, Maranhao, and Piaui, while Rio Grande do Sul faces declining moisture after early-season excess.

StoneX cut Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean production forecast by 0.9% to 177.2 million metric tons, citing productivity reductions in Mato Grosso and Goias despite modest area expansion. Despite the revision, the forecast still points to a record crop. Brazilian exporter 3tentos expects soybean origination to grow from 4.11 million tons in 2025 to 4.8 million tons in 2026.

Anec maintained its projection for record Brazilian soybean exports of 110 million tons in 2025, up from 97.3 million tons last year, driven primarily by Chinese demand.

Chinese Demand: The USDA’s Beijing post forecasts China’s 2025/26 soybean imports at 106 million metric tons, down 1 million tons year-over-year as Beijing continues limiting import growth. The projection reflects restrained crushing demand growth of 2% and government efforts to control imports. China’s domestic production is forecast at 19.9 million metric tons.

Read the full report with our WASDE estimates here: Soybeans Breakdown and Cattle Breakout! - Blue Line Futures

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