Walsh Soybean Opportunities - Pure Hedge Division

January soybeans closed down 14 1/4 cents to 1105 1/4. March soybeans closed down 13 cents 1115 3/4. 

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Treasury Secretary Bessent said yesterday that China is on pace to meet its pledge to purchase 12 mmt of US soybeans by the end of February. After the APEC Summit in late October, it was said that China would buy 12 mmt by the end of the year and at least 25 mmt in each of the next three years. At this point the USDA has only confirmed 2.25 mmt in purchases from China, however, actual sales could be closer to 3-4 mmt. Either way, this raises the question of how firm of a deal was really made between the US and China. To me, the upside in regard to China’s purchases is likely priced in. Soybeans already rallied $1 from the end of October, making a high at 1169 1/2 on November 18. 

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Something to watch going forward is the weather in South America. Planting is still taking place in South America, with Argentina planting estimated at ~44% complete and Brazil planting at ~86% complete. There are dryness concerns in both countries that could create significant crop stress during the key reproductive stages in January and February. La Niña has a history of creating excessive heat and dry weather, which could tighten supply in South America. If La Niña ends up being a non-factor, however, being short beans could be very profitable, especially with the gap in the chart waiting to be filled.  

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Consider the following opportunities: 

March ’26 SOYBEANS

BUY 1 MARCH ’26 1080 PUT 14.37 1/2

SELL 1 MARCH ’26 1060 PUT 9.12 1/2

Price: 5 1/4 DEBIT        Cost: $262.50 DEBIT/TRADE PACKAGE, PLUS FEES AND COMMISSIONS.

MARCH’26 SOYBEANS OIL OPTIONS EXPIRE 2/20/26 (77 DAYS) 

MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED

May ’26 SOYBEAN OIL

BUY 1 MAY ’26 55 CALL 2.34 1/2

SELL 1 MAY ’26 65 CALL 0.54 1/2

SELL 1 MAY ’26 56 PUT 5.37 1/2

BUY 1 May '26 51 PUT 2.44

Price: 1.13 1/2 CREDIT     Cost: $681 CREDIT/TRADE PACKAGE, PLUS FEES AND COMMISSIONS.

MAY’26 SOYBEAN OIL OPTIONS EXPIRE 4/24/26 (140 DAYS) 

MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED

This is a longer-term trade, looking for soybean oil to trade 64.00-66.00. By entering this trade, you collect a credit of 1.13 1/2 or $681, in addition to any gains from a rally in soybean oil. 

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Hans Schmit
Broker, Pure Hedge Division 
312-765-7311
hschmit@walshtrading.com

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