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January Feeder Cattle gap opened lower for the second session in a row, this time almost 10 handles below the previous day’s settlement. It traded to the high at 340.50 and boom we were limit down for the second session in a row reaching the expanded limit. The low was at 334.425 and it settled down limit. Expanded limits will be in effect for Tuesday. Talk of a great meeting between the President and his counterpart from Brazil would lead to a reduction in tariffs with Brazil set the cattle markets in a downward spiral. This is on top of bringing in more product from Argentina to try and reduce beef prices in the US. There are growing expectations that the border with Mexico will reopen sooner rather than later as the Mexican Ag Minister is coming intown this week to convince the US to open the border. Reports from Mexico are stating the Texas Department of Agriculture is putting pressure on the USDA to get the border open in a controlled manner. This caused more liquidation in the market and a flush to the downside as a result. The breakdown has effectively erased gains that occurred since August with the Monthly chart showing a huge reversal in price. This is on top of an Evening Star candle formation on the weekly chart that implies further weakness is likely. The breakdown also put Feeders below the rising 100-DMA now at 341.375 on the continuous chart. If the market doesn’t reverse course soon, it puts the crosshairs on the rising 200-DMA now at 312.15 on the continuous chart. We’ll see!... A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at 332.075. Support then comes in at 329.075. If price stabilizes, we could consolidate within the Monday range.
The Feeder Cattle Index increased and is at 367.55 as of 10/24/2025.
December Live Cattle gap opened lower and made the high at 234.075, closing the gap. Price collapsed and traded down the expanded limit to the low at 223.175. A late morning rally turned the tide and took price off limit as price recovered some losses into the close to settle at 227.175. The breakdown took price below the 100-DMA now at 228.50 and to support at 223.275. The breakdown took down cash prices as trades took place at 228.00 – 230.00 on a live basis and 355.00 – 360.00 on a dressed basis. The packer saw huge gains in the cutout as choice and select were not affected by the futures crash as retailers paid up to acquire product. Like I said on Friday, maybe the President should have attacked the packing industry for the excessively high prices they are getting for beef. The price action in the futures has turned ugly and we are putting in bearish formations on the weekly and monthly charts, in my opinion. The weekly put in a bearish Evening Star candle formation last week and the monthly is putting in a potential key reversal in price. The reversal in price has taken out most of the gains since August. It has given the packer control of the cash market on both the producer and retail sides. Just as they like it. With cheaper beef potentially coming in from foreign sources, they can lower their costs squeeze the market participants, in my opinion. Fundamentals haven’t changed but sentiment has and this could be a problem for producers. And if the border opens, this could change the dynamics even more, depending on the flow of cattle allowed in the US as we go forward. Texas wants the border open and the Mexicans are coming to state their case to open the border. The President wants lower beef prices. What could go wrong? We’ll see!... A failure from settlement could see price re-test support at 223.275. Support then comes in at220.05. If price can retake the 100-DMA, it could test resistance at 230.425. Resistance then comes in at 232.75.
Boxed beef cutouts were higher as choice cutouts jumped 2.12 to 377.88 and select surged 3.69 to 361.66. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 16.22 and the load count was 117.
Monday’s estimated slaughter is 105,000, which is above last week’s 92,000 and below last year’s 120,390.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states So far for Monday, negotiated cash trade has been moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt. Compared to last week, live purchases in Nebraska have been 5.00-9.00 lower at 230.00 and dressed purchases have been 9.00-10.00 lower from 358.00-360.00. Compared to last week in the Western Cornbelt, live purchases have been 5.00-10.00 lower at 230.00. The last established dressed market in the Western Cornbelt was last week at 372.00 on a light test. Negotiated cash trade has been inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains. The last established market in the Texas Panhandle was last week at 238.00. The last established market in Kansas was last week at 238.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 228.00 – 230.00 and from 355.00 – 360.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
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