OpenAI boosts AI stocks, but for how long?

NVIDIA may still be the dominant supplier of AI chips, with growing demand pushing its market capitalization to $4.5 trillion and NVDA stock trading record highs, but other AI-related companies are also experiencing strong growth, at least in terms of their share prices. And, weirdly, much of the latter is due to the creator of ChatGPT, which is not yet profitable. 

In particular, although OpenAI posted operating losses of $7.8 billion in the first half of 2025 due to high R&D expenses and is not expected to be profitable until 2029, the company continues to announce major deals. In September, for example, it revealed a five-year, $300 billion contract with Oracle for AI computing power.

Oracle's stock subsequently soared on the news, briefly making founder Larry Ellison the richest person in the world, surpassing Elon Musk, but questions remain. Specifically, where will Oracle get more money, given that its already aggressive capital spending has led to negative free cash flow, forcing it to rely heavily on debt?

In October, on the other hand, OpenAI announced that it will purchase tens of billions of dollars worth of chips from AMD for its data centers. On top of that, as part of the deal, OpenAI could even acquire about 10% of AMD's shares if the company's stock reaches a certain target and OpenAI begins using its chips. 

In total, the company has reportedly signed agreements worth around $1 trillion this year to secure the computing power needed to run its AI models, a figure that, when compared to its current earnings and even long-term forecasts, seems unsustainable, but which, so far, does not seem to worry investors.

So the bubble it is?

Wherever we look, the figures between expected earnings and expenses don't quite add up. And even if the outlook were clearer, it remains uncertain when significant returns will materialize, especially since AI earnings outside of chip suppliers remain limited. No wonder the bubble risks reemerge.

Still, just because the market feels overheated doesn’t mean a crash is imminent. Euphoria can persist — just as it did during the dot-com era — but the longer it lasts, the sharper the eventual correction may be. Investors would be wise to stay alert and consider positioning their portfolios for a potential shift.