Can Huntsman Finally Explain What Changed After March?

Huntsman Corporation (HUN) reports second-quarter 2026 earnings after the close on July 30, with analysts expecting the specialty chemicals maker to post its first positive quarterly result in over a year. The central question is whether management can deliver on expectations for a sharp turnaround after four consecutive quarters of losses, and whether improving demand trends can sustain momentum into the second half. With the stock trading near $11.96 and Wall Street divided on the outlook, this report will test investor confidence in the company's recovery narrative.

Part 1: Earnings Preview

Huntsman Corporation is a global manufacturer and marketer of differentiated and specialty chemicals, operating through four key segments: Polyurethanes, Performance Products, Advanced Materials, and Textile Effects. The company serves diverse end markets including construction, automotive, electronics, and apparel, making it sensitive to both industrial demand cycles and raw material cost fluctuations.

Huntsman is scheduled to report Q2 2026 results after the close on July 30, followed by a conference call at 10:00 AM ET on July 31. Analysts expect earnings of $0.06 per share on revenue of approximately $1.60 billion, representing a significant improvement from the most recently reported quarter's loss of $0.20 per share. Year-over-year, the consensus estimate reflects a dramatic +130% improvement compared to the $0.20 loss posted in Q2 2025, signaling expectations for a meaningful inflection point in profitability.

Three key themes define this earnings story:

1. Return to Profitability: After posting losses in each of the past four quarters (ranging from $0.03 to $0.37 per share), investors are focused on whether Huntsman can deliver its first positive quarter since early 2025. The expected $0.06 EPS would mark a critical turning point and validate management's restructuring efforts and cost reduction initiatives.

2. Demand Recovery Across End Markets: The chemicals sector has faced headwinds from destocking, weak industrial demand, and pricing pressure. Analysts are watching for signs that demand is stabilizing or improving across Huntsman's key segments, particularly in construction-related polyurethanes and automotive applications, which would support the sequential improvement narrative.

3. Margin Expansion and Cost Management: With revenue expected to grow approximately 9% year-over-year to $1.59 billion, the focus is on whether Huntsman can convert top-line growth into bottom-line profitability through improved operating leverage, better pricing discipline, and the benefits of recent cost-cutting measures.

Wall Street remains cautious heading into the print. The consensus rating sits at Hold with an average price target of $13.38, implying modest upside from current levels. However, analyst views are mixed—while some see the turnaround taking hold, others remain concerned about the sustainability of any recovery given persistent macro uncertainties. Goldman Sachs recently set a $12.00 target, while Citigroup raised its target to $16.00, reflecting the wide range of opinions on the stock's near-term trajectory.

Part 2: Historical Earnings Performance

Huntsman's recent earnings track record reveals an inconsistent pattern of surprises with significant volatility in execution. Over the past four quarters, the company has delivered two beats and two misses, with surprise magnitudes ranging from a 76.92% beat in Q3 2025 to a 33.33% miss in Q2 2025.

The most recent quarter (Q1 2026) showed modest improvement, with Huntsman posting a loss of $0.20 per share versus estimates of $0.23, representing a 13.04% beat. However, this followed a disappointing Q4 2025 result where the company missed by 27.59%, reporting a $0.37 loss against a $0.29 consensus. The Q3 2025 quarter stands out as the strongest recent performance, delivering a significant upside surprise of 76.92% with a $0.03 loss versus the $0.13 loss expected.

The pattern suggests execution remains challenged, with no clear trend of consistent beats or misses. The wide swings in surprise percentages—from large beats to meaningful misses—indicate difficulty in forecasting results amid volatile end-market conditions and ongoing operational challenges. Investors should approach this quarter's $0.06 positive EPS estimate with caution, given the company's recent history of unpredictable results and the significant improvement required to return to profitability.

Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.

Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings

Huntsman typically reports earnings after market close, meaning Day 0 reflects anticipatory trading before results are released, while Day +1 captures the market's first full reaction to the actual numbers.

Historical price action around Huntsman's earnings releases shows significant volatility, with the stock averaging absolute moves of 3.69% on Day 0 and 6.19% on Day +1. The Day +1 trading range has been particularly wide, averaging 8.85%, indicating substantial intraday volatility as investors digest results and management commentary.

Recent earnings reactions have been mixed but generally negative. The most recent report (April 2026) was an outlier, with the stock surging 8.45% on Day 0 despite the company posting another quarterly loss, though Day +1 saw more modest follow-through with a 1.81% gain. Prior to that, the February 2026 report triggered a 6.51% decline on Day 0, followed by an 8.58% rebound on Day +1, demonstrating the whipsaw nature of post-earnings trading.

The pattern over the past year shows Day +1 moves have been larger and more volatile than Day 0 reactions, suggesting that conference call commentary and forward guidance play a critical role in shaping investor sentiment. With the stock's recent earnings moves ranging from declines of over 9% to gains exceeding 10% in the day following results, investors should prepare for potentially significant price swings regardless of whether the company meets, beats, or misses expectations.

Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move

The options market is pricing in an expected move of 4.62% (approximately $0.55) for the upcoming earnings release, which is notably higher than the historical Day 0 average move of 3.69% but below the Day +1 average of 6.19%. This suggests options traders are anticipating above-average volatility compared to the immediate reaction but are not fully pricing in the larger follow-through moves that have characterized recent earnings cycles.

Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying

Wall Street maintains a cautious stance on Huntsman heading into earnings, with a consensus rating that translates to Hold and an average price target of $13.38. This target implies approximately 12% upside from the current price of $11.96, suggesting analysts see modest recovery potential but remain hesitant to embrace a more bullish view.

The analyst community is notably divided, with 2 Strong Buy ratings and 9 Hold ratings, but also 1 Moderate Sell and 1 Strong Sell, reflecting uncertainty about the sustainability of any turnaround. The range of price targets is wide, spanning from a low of $11.00 to a high of $18.00, underscoring the divergent views on the company's prospects. This 64% spread between the high and low targets indicates significant disagreement about fair value and the likelihood of a successful recovery.

Analyst sentiment has remained unchanged over the past month, with the rating distribution holding steady at 13 total recommendations. This stability suggests the Street is in wait-and-see mode, with most analysts reluctant to adjust their views ahead of the Q2 print. Recent actions include Goldman Sachs maintaining a relatively conservative $12.00 target, while Citigroup has been more optimistic with a $16.00 target and neutral rating, and Morgan Stanley lifting its target to $15.00 while maintaining an equal weight stance.

The predominance of Hold ratings and the modest average price target reflect lingering concerns about end-market demand, margin pressure, and the company's ability to sustain profitability after returning to positive earnings. While the consensus expects improvement, the cautious positioning suggests analysts want to see proof of execution and forward guidance that supports a durable recovery before upgrading their recommendations.

Part 4: Technical Picture

Huntsman's technical setup heading into earnings reflects deteriorating momentum and weakening investor sentiment. The Barchart Technical Opinion has shifted dramatically from 40% Buy one week ago to 24% Sell currently, marking a significant reversal in short-term momentum. This represents a sharp decline from the 8% Sell signal registered one month ago, indicating accelerating technical weakness in recent sessions.

Timeframe Analysis:

• Short-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal indicates near-term momentum has turned negative heading into the earnings release
• Medium-term (Hold): Neutral reading suggests the intermediate trend remains in consolidation mode without clear directional conviction
• Long-term (Hold): Neutral signal reflects an absence of strong trend characteristics in the longer-term timeframe

Trend Characteristics: The current trend is characterized as Weak with a Weakest directional bias, suggesting the stock is in a vulnerable technical position with limited momentum support as it approaches the earnings catalyst.

The stock is trading at $11.96, positioned below its 5-day ($12.15), 10-day ($12.22), 50-day ($12.87), and 100-day ($13.04) moving averages, indicating short- and intermediate-term downtrends remain intact. However, the stock is trading above its 20-day ($11.69) and 200-day ($11.75) moving averages, providing some longer-term support near current levels.

The technical picture presents a challenging setup for earnings, with the stock caught between longer-term support around the 200-day moving average and resistance from declining shorter-term averages. The deteriorating Barchart Opinion signal and positioning below key short-term moving averages suggest momentum is not on the bulls' side heading into the release. The $11.75 level (200-day MA) represents critical support—a break below on disappointing results could trigger further technical selling, while a strong beat would need to reclaim the $12.15-$12.22 zone (5-day and 10-day MAs) to signal a meaningful technical reversal. Given the weak trend characteristics and recent momentum deterioration, the technical setup appears cautionary rather than supportive for the earnings event.