August Nymex natural gas (NGQ26) on Tuesday closed down -0.105 (-3.79%).
Nat-gas prices retreated for a fourth straight session on Tuesday and posted a 3-month nearest-futures low. Prices are under pressure as weather models shifted to show a cooler Midwest and East Coast in the near term, reducing the need for air conditioning. The Commodity Weather Group said on Tuesday that forecasts call for normal to below-normal temperatures across the central and eastern US through August 5. Â
A bearish factor for nat-gas prices in the medium term is speculation that a powerful El Niño weather system will bring warmer-than-normal temperatures to the Northern Hemisphere this fall and winter, reducing nat-gas heating demand.Â
US (lower-48) dry gas production on Tuesday was 112.3 bcf/day (+1.9% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Tuesday was 84.0 bcf/day (-2.8% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Tuesday were 18.1 bcf/day (+2.4% w/w), according to BNEF.
Projections for higher US nat-gas production are negative for prices. On July 7, the EIA raised its forecast for 2026 US dry nat-gas production to 111.2 bcf/day from a June estimate of 111.0 bcf/day.
As a positive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended July 18 rose +2.0% y/y to 101,391 GWh (gigawatt hours). Also, US electricity output in the 52 weeks ending July 18 rose +2.3% y/y to 4,350,346 GWh.
Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was mixed for nat-gas prices, as nat-gas inventories for the week ended July 17 rose by +32 bcf, less than expectations of +34 bcf but above the 5-year weekly average increase of +30 bcf. As of July 17, nat-gas inventories were down -0.6% y/y, and +6.4% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies. As of July 25, gas storage in Europe was 55% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 71% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending July 24 rose by +1 rig to 127 rigs, below the 3-year high of 134 rigs set in February 2026.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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