Walsh Pure Technicals - Pure Hedge Division

Jon Wiedeman                                                                                                                            9/23/2025 

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Daily ZSX5: 

November beans closed the day higher even with continued weakness by soybean meal.  November beans are now on a 40 plus cent break from the recent highs and through most of support.  I am using the psychological $10 level then followed by 994 as support on the daily charts. As far as resistance goes, we have yesterday’s high at 1025 followed by the 50day moving average at 1026. (see chart below).

Weekly ZSX5:

Looking at the weekly charts for November beans we have resistance at 50 day moving average of 1028 then the 21 day which comes in at 1032.  For support I am using the $10 level then 984 ½. (see chart below).

Fundamentals:

With the announcement of Argentina’s export tax being removed temporarily China decided on buying their beans yesterday over the US.  With this tax removal it is an incentive for the Argentina farmer to sell beans that are in the bin.  US crop ratings did drop 2% in the good to excellent category down to 61% vs 64% last year.  We will keep an eye on harvest weather as progress is basically the same as it was last year. Pro farmer consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his 2025 US bean yield by 0.5 and is now using a yield of 52 bu/ac. It’s obvious the market is looking for China to come back to the US to spark some demand, until then it looks like beans might have an uphill battle in my opinion.

Trade Ideas: 

Long the 1050-1100 call spread in November beans for 10 cents. 

Daily ZCZ5:

December corn closed the day higher and above the 100-day moving average which is currently at 425 ¾. Current support I am using in Dec corn is 418 ¼ which was yesterday low then 414 ½ which is the 50-day moving average. We have closed above the 50day since the end of August so that will be an important number to hold.  As far as resistance goes, we have last week’s high of 431 ¼. (see chart below).

Weekly ZCZ5:

Looking at the weekly charts for December corn we have resistance at last week's high of 431 ¼ and followed by the 50day at 440 ¼. For support I am using 415 and then 403 ½. (see chart below).

Fundamentals: 

Just like soybeans Argentina’s temporary removal of the import tax is going to make it difficult for the US to stay competitive in the export market although we did see a morning sales announcement of 122,947 MT to Mexico.  Pro farmer consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier did lower his corn yield 2 bushels and now is using an 182 bu/ac. The US crop condition fell 1% in the good to excellent category and now is at 66% vs 65% last year.  Also keep an eye on the market and how it reacts to harvest pressure on the forecasted record corn crop being harvested currently.

Trade Ideas:

Long the December 410-450 call spread for 8½ cents.

Daily ZWZ5:

December wheat closed the day higher after making a new contract low of 507 ¼. Resistance on the daily charts come in at 523 which was yesterday’s high then the 21-day moving average of 524. For support I am using 507 ¼ which is the contract low then the psychological level of $5. (see chart below).

Weekly ZWZ5:

Looking at the weekly charts for December wheat we have support just like the daily charts at 507 ¼ then the psychological $5 level.  For resistance we have last weeks high of 535 ¾ then the 14-day moving average of 541 ¼. (see chart below).

Fundamentals:

Winter wheat plantings were 20% complete as of Sunday and the weekly export inspections came in above estimates with last week having solid shipments out of the US. Again, with the temporary freeze of the export tax in Argentina we will continue to watch and see how that affects our market. 

Trade Ideas:

Long the 530 – 570 Dec call spread for 9 cents.

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Jon Wiedeman

Pure Hedge Division

Direct: 1 312 957 8108

jwiedeman@walshtrading.com

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