December corn made a high at 420 this morning and closed at 417, -2 3/4 cents. March ’26 corn closed at 434 1/2, -3 cents. Corn has traded sideways since last week’s short-covering rally, triggered by better inspection numbers. Export inspections improved to 56.8 mb last week. 25.6 mb of the 56.8 mb are new crop corn sales, which is slightly ahead of last year’s pace. Corn has held a tighter trading range heading into Friday morning’s WASDE report. On the last report, the USDA raised their yield estimate from 181.0 bpa in July to 188.8 bpa. The average estimate for corn yield on Friday is 186.0, with estimates as high as 189.0 and as low as 182.7 bpa. Looking historically, the USDA’s August yield estimates show a trend of coming in higher than the final figures in January. 4 of the last 6 years saw a lower yield adjustment from August to September.
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There has been some discussion of problems including disease and weather being too dry, and too cold. The average estimate for corn production is 16,502 bb, compared to the USDA estimate at 16,742 bb in August. Acreage is expected to be unchanged at 88.7 ma.
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Corn Conditions
Corn conditions as of September 7 came in at 68% good/excellent, -1 point from the week prior and 4 points higher than last year. The 10-year average corn rating for this week of the year is 62% good/excellent. Illinois still leads the way in corn rated poor/very poor at 17%. 9% of corn is rated poor/very poor compared to 12% last year and 13% over the last 10 years.
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Volatility and COT
Implied volatility for December corn is mostly unchanged from last week at 18%. The market is quiet ahead of harvest and Friday’s report. In May, implied volatility was closer to 25%. The latest Commitment of Traders report for the week ending September 2 shows managed money bought 19,199 contracts, bringing their net short position in corn to -91,487 contracts. This is the first time managed money has been short less than 100,000 contracts since May. Non-commercial traders are short -67,363 contracts, compared to their record net short at -277,559 contracts.
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December ’25 CORN
Buy December Corn 450 Call 3 5/8
Price: 3 5/8 Cost: $181.25 Debit/Trade Package, Plus Fees and Commissions.
December’25 Corn Options Expire 11/21/25 (72 Days)
MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED
MAXIMUM GAIN: UNLIMITED
December ’25 CORN
Buy 1 December Corn 440 Call 5 3/4
Sell 1 December Corn 470 Call 1.00
Price: 4 3/4 Cost: $237.50 Debit/Trade Package, Plus Fees and Commissions.
December’25 Corn Options Expire 11/21/25 (72 Days)
MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED
MAXIMUM GAIN: 30 cents or $1,500/Trade Package minus Premium Paid
December ’25 CORN
Buy 1 December 425 call 9 3/4
Buy 1 December 415 Put 12.00
Price: 21.75 Cost: $1,087.50 Debit/Trade Package, Plus Fees and Commissions.
March’26 Corn Options Expire 11/21/25 (72 Days)
MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED
MAXIMUM GAIN: UNLIMITED
This trade profits from a large move in either direction, with a slight bias to the downside. Corn has had a tighter trading range lately. Consider putting this trade on if you think Friday’s report will wake the grain markets up.
March ’26 CORN
Buy 1 December Corn 440 Call 15 1/2
Sell 1 December Corn 470 Call 8 1/8
Price: 7 3/8 Cost: $368.75 Debit/Trade Package, Plus Fees and Commissions.
March’26 Corn Options Expire 2/20/26 (163 Days)
MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED
MAXIMUM GAIN: 30 cents or $1,500/Trade Package minus Premium Paid
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Hans Schmit, Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311 Toll Free 800-993-5449
hschmit@walshtrading.com www.walshtrading.com
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.
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