Markets bet on whether the US District Court will rule for Trump on 10 U.S.C. § 12406

Kalshi has reported 9,467 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will United States District Court for the Northern District of California rule for Trump (that Trump's use of 10 U.S.C. § 12406 was lawful)?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 7% chance for "Before 2026", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 7% probability.

If United States District Court for the Northern District of California rules for Trump (that Trump's use of 10 U.S.C. § 12406 was lawful) before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 70,241 transactions since it was first opened on June 10, 2025. There are 18,682 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 4,658,586 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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