Shootin' The Bull Some reprieve in the cattle complex today

Cattle:​

The selling in the cattle complex got a bit of reprieve today with October fats closing up 2.27 and feeders closing up as much as 3.92 in the September contract.  Further consolidation continued as we await tomorrow's Semi-Annual Inventory, COF and monthly Cold Storage reports.  Gapping lower on the opening and closing higher on the day was supportive price action but did not prove anything in regard to a reversal.  The real fireworks will most likely be on Monday's open after we have the data.  This back and forth can be written off to pre-report positioning.  The latest average guesses are 102.2 On Feed, 98 Placed and 97 Marketed. 

No cash trade to speak of yet, but packers started bids at 228 earlier this week and are up to 232 after today's trade, which would be $5-8 lower if traded.  Dressed prices are $365 which would be down $15 over last week.  Boxed beef was up in the AM print but turned lower again in the afternoon with choice closing down .63 and select down 1.82.  If boxes continue to erode, the cash market will have a tough time stabilizing.  There are rumors of plants cutting kills or shutting down completely in the coming weeks.  Wednesday's kill was 95K, which was lower than Monday's and Tuesday's number.  

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Corn & Beans:

The rally in corn, beans and wheat lost some momentum today with Dec corn finishing up 2 cents, Dec wheat down 11 and Nov beans up 2 cents.  With crude being up 6% today on war premium, this is a time to consider tightening stops, make sales or start scaling out of long positions.  No signs of a reversal in either of the three, but a down day tomorrow would catch some people's attention.  Weather in the corn belt is still of concern as is the geopolitical front.  With a large amount of that war premium built into the grain complex, a shift in the narrative could cause swift reversals in all three.  Throw in a weather shift and it could get western.   I don't think the rally is over yet, just want to exercise some caution here.

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Chris Swift is taking a well-deserved vacation this week.  Reach out to me with questions.

-Chris Winward

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