Shootin' The Bull Cats not bouncing

Cattle:​

Overall, a heavy day in the entire cattle complex with fats closing down $3-4 and feeders down as much as $9.80 in the October contract.  The hits kept coming with corn bid on war premium and a threatening US forecast in addition to a lower AM box print. Both fats and feeders traded to levels not seen since last December and closing near the lows of the day would suggest further selling on tomorrow's open.  Couple that with the Cattle on Feed and Inventory report being released on Friday that may show some signs of herd rebuilding, confidence that has been residing in the bull camp is being tested this week.  The COF report is expected to show 102.2 On Feed, 98 Placed and 97 Marketed. PM Choice boxes were down 3.41 @ 363.50.  The consumer is stretched and higher gas prices aren't helping pull the beef market out of the current seasonal doldrums.

No material cash trade has developed for the week, but a few bids started at $228 in early trade in IA/MN.  A failure on that front will pressure the market going into the release of Friday's reports that will come out after the close.  A further correction after a consolidation phase in futures often brings in fresh sellers. I believe that the industry as a whole is underhedged at the moment and I encourage producers to take a look at what options are out there to help set some kind of floor on open inventory.  

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Corn & Beans:

Corn, beans and wheat all saw strength today with more of the same narrative that has been supporting the complex all week.  Dec corn finished up 9, Nov beans up 15 1/2, and Dec Chicago wheat up 27 1/4.  Dec KC wheat finished up an impressive 30 1/2 cents.  All closed up near session highs.  A threatening US weather outlook for the western corn belt as well as Iran/US headlines and Red Sea shipping disruptions lent support prices that aren't showing any signs of abating.  Crude finished up over $2 on the day.  No progress on a ceasefire yet.

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Chris Swift is taking a well-deserved vacation this week.  Reach out to me with questions.

-Chris Winward