Metals - technical analysis

Gold & Silver (GCQ26) (SIU26) 

Gold rose more than 1% on Tuesday as investors assessed reports of renewed mediation efforts in the Middle East, which could ease energy prices and temper concerns about persistently high interest rates aimed at controlling inflation. Gold futures were up 1.2%, or $49.90, at $4,126 per ounce by 1220 GMT. After its sharp January rally to an all-time high, gold has been searching for a price floor, and there is some indication that the worst of the sell-off may be over. However, upside momentum remains limited. Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday, with September WTI crude reaching $88.61 at one point before retreating, though it remained more than $3 above the previous day’s settlement.

Silver extended its rally for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, briefly trading above $60 an ounce during the overnight U.S. session as investors returned to precious metals amid growing threats to two key Middle East shipping routes. At the time of writing, silver was up 1.04% at $59.71 in early U.S. trading, its highest level since early July 2026.

Platinum Metals Group (PAU26) (PLV26) 

Platinum futures climbed to about $1,670 an ounce, a four-week high, supported by renewed buying across precious metals and persistent global supply constraints. After weeks of steep losses across the precious metals complex, prices showed signs of support from dip-buying as traders balanced higher energy prices against soft U.S. economic data.

The platinum market also continued to benefit from a tight supply outlook. The World Platinum Investment Council expects a fourth consecutive market deficit in 2026, driven by constrained mine supply, elevated energy costs, and higher winter electricity tariffs. China’s industrial policies supporting AI, electric vehicles, and clean energy, along with the launch of the first platinum investment bar series, are also expected to bolster long-term platinum demand. Meanwhile, Sibanye-Stillwater plans to advance seven PGM mining projects, though production is not expected to begin until next year.

Copper (HGU26)

Copper rose to its highest level in more than a month on Tuesday as China’s physical market tightened and traders revived bets on a possible U.S. tariff on refined metal. September Comex copper gained 3.3% to $6.55 a pound ($14,440 a tons) in early New York trading, within 2% of June’s record. Three-month LME copper advanced 1.7% to $13,851 a tons, leaving New York at a nearly $600-a-tons premium and pointing to renewed tariff risk. In China, the spot cathode premium over Shanghai futures climbed to 435 yuan ($61) a tons from zero a week earlier, the highest since May 2025. The Yangshan import premium also rose to $103 a tons on Monday, its highest since May 2025 and up from $20 in January, according to Shanghai Metals Market data.

Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories have dropped 82% since early May, while LME stocks are down 28%. Of the 296,625 tons held in the LME system on Tuesday, 166,025 tons, or 56%, were on cancelled warrants awaiting delivery, while the cash-to-three-month spread has moved close to backwardation. Copper appears to be supported by tighter conditions in China. The squeeze is also pressuring smelters: Earth-i’s SAVANT index showed 16% of global copper smelter capacity inactive in the second quarter, with Chile at 25.4%, the highest since 2019, alongside a 12.9% year-on-year drop in May output. Record-low treatment charges are also forcing closures, including Japan’s 354,000-tons-a-year Onahama smelter, which is due to stop processing concentrates by early 2027.

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