E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
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S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 6356.00, up 91.50
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NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 23,296.50, up 412.75
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E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures started the week with a monster session. The bull switch was flipped back on after sellers had taken the reins Thursday and Friday. We believe the main catalyst to be the odds of three 25bps cuts by the Federal Reserve before year-end, which became as high as a 55% probability yesterday. An additional tailwind was a constructive response to a strong area of support in E-mini S&P futures, aligning with June’s close and the low from July 16th when President Trump was believed to be firing Fed Chair Powell. The odds of three 25bps cuts are currently at 49.1%.
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President Trump is expected to join CNBC this morning at 7:00 am CT. Services data is front and center thereafter. The final SPGI read for July is due at 8:45 am CT, before the more closely watched ISM report at 9:00 am CT.
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E-mini S&P futures are testing the gap close from last Thursday and the .618 Fibonacci retracement of the three-day range, which aligns to create major three-star resistance at 6374.25-6381. E-mini NQ futures are also testing that gap close, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci and comes in at 23,305-23,365. The tape is very strong, and continued price action out above our Pivot and point of balance, as well as major three-star support, will continue to feed the bull case, with that support coming in at….
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