Shootin' The Bull

Cattle:​

I spent last week fishing in Panama.  Great fishing, friendly people and cattle everywhere.  To Swift's point in Friday's commentary about South American beef production and the potential for those countries to increase exports, I agree that it is something that is looming and could move the needle on US prices in the coming months.  We have talked about the breaking point of the US consumer in terms of discretionary spending power and with recent data supporting this idea, I think it should be considered when timing hedges.  Cattle rallied today with fats up $2 and some feeder contracts up over $7.  This morning's higher boxes print eased some concerns that this correction would look like the one we had last fall.  A continuation of today's rally in this week's trade would look like the futures are starting another rotation to the upside.  The extent of this move in the futures will be influenced what the feeder index does, what boxes do and what the cash trade looks like later in the week.   Sentiment has changed and a failure of any of those will weigh more on futures prices than in recent past.  I think the highs are in and that any rally should be used to sure up a hedging plan.  Basis is narrowing in the feeders and with today's lower index print and rally in the Aug futures, that tensity is not what it was last week.  

Recent events on the geopolitical front will also play a role in this week's ag trade.  Escalation with the Russia/Ukraine conflict coupled with the recent Strait of Hormuz developments could lead to a short-lived rally in the cattle complex.  Higher energy, higher input costs, lower consumer spending power, and general broader market uncertainty are all good reasons to use a rally this week to set some floors on open inventory if you have not done so already.  If you caught some of that move down on the futures or options side, consider adjusting positions to capture some of the move.   

Chris Swift is taking a well-deserved vacation this week.  Reach out to me with questions.

-Chris Winward