Walmart (WMT) beat Wall Street’s expectations in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, reporting revenue of $180.55 billion and earnings per share of $0.66, up 10%. The company's domestic operations showed significant strength, with Walmart US achieving 4.6% comparable sales growth, primarily driven by strong performance in grocery, health, and wellness categories.
Sam's Club also emerged as a bright spot, delivering 6.8% comparable sales growth and an impressive 13% increase in membership income to underline the continued appeal of its warehouse club model.
Management announced a 13% increase to its annual dividend, as well, which brings the payout to $0.94 per share. This marks Walmart’s 52nd consecutive year of dividend growth, extending its run as a Dividend King.
Why WMT Stock Plunged Today
Despite these strong results, WMT stock cratered 6.5% following its fiscal 2026 guidance, which projected modest sales growth of 3-4% - falling short of consensus expectations of 4.1%. CFO John David Rainey specifically citing economic uncertainties and potential impacts from tariffs and consumer spending patterns.
“I think similar to last year, the last couple of years very consistently, we have to acknowledge that we are in an uncertain time,” said Rainey on the conference call with analysts. “And we don't want to get out over our skis here. There's a lot of the year to play out.”
This cautious approach marks a departure from Walmart's recent pattern of beating and raising guidance, signaling a more conservative outlook for the retail giant in the face of macroeconomic uncertainties. The shift here is particularly chilling given Walmart's stellar performance throughout 2024, during which the company's stock rose 70% and consistently outperformed its retail competitors.
Analysts Still Say Walmart is a ‘Strong Buy’
On Wall Street, analysts overwhelmingly rate Walmart stock as a “Strong Buy,” and the average price target of $108.27 stands slightly north of WMT’s current 52-week high.
Multiple brokerage firms reiterated bullish ratings on the stock today, including JPMorgan, UBS, and Goldman Sachs.
Stifel Nicolaus stood out with a “Hold” reiteration, but added: “We lift our price target slightly to $99, 17x the higher multiple reflecting Walmart’s best-in-class business model to continue to grow operating profit ahead of sales, while maintaining share gains.”
Should You Buy the Dip in WMT Stock?
Technically speaking, the sharp post-earnings sell-off has left the stock perched above its rising 50-day moving average. After spending nearly four weeks in overbought territory, WMT’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has now plummeted back below the 70 threshold to settle around 45 on Thursday.
While this pullback has likely gone a long way toward helping WMT work off its overbought status in the short term, investors will likely want to proceed with caution until the shares start to show some positive momentum again.
Plus, while Walmart’s high-margin revenue streams, including advertising and membership income, continue to show promising double-digit growth, the stock’s current valuation - at nearly 42 times forward adjusted earnings - suggests that investors are paying a premium for expected growth at these levels.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. On the date of publication, the editor did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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