The South American Agriculture Report is now available. Changes to forecast expectations have been limited over the last 24 hours.
The forecast is guided by the following weather highlights:
- A wet weather pattern will persist across Central Brazil including much of Mato Grosso over the next several days. A few rounds of storms are likely, with temperatures also averaging below normal as a result. Rains will be intermittent but result in above normal precipitation departures for this time of year across the broader region of Central Brazil.
- A period of dry weather will continue in parts of Argentina for the next 10-14 days with temperatures averaging much warmer than normal and precipitation averaging below normal from Argentina into parts of Southern Brazil. This will likely result in soil moisture deficits developing across the region as we move through January 15-20 or so, while moisture and rains continue in Central Brazil.
- A pattern change (driven by the MJO) is expected from January 20th onwards with chances for at least normal to slightly above normal moisture returning to Argentina and S Brazil. This critical change in the pattern will help relieve some pressure on soil moisture and will be closely monitored as any changes (specifically delays) could result in increasing risk levels.
Areas of Concern and Risk Levels
Northeast Argentina: Concern Level 3.5/5 → | A drier than normal weather pattern and warmer temperatures over the next 2 weeks will result in degrading soil moisture conditions and could result in some crop impacts as we move through January. Most guidance indicates moisture will return with some better frequency in late January (post 1/20) and this should put a cap on the risk levels overall. The timing and intensity of this change will be closely monitored.
Central Brazil (MT, GO, MG, ES) Concern Level 2/5 → | The weather pattern remains active across much of Central Brazil. Soil moisture data shows improvements over the last two to three weeks. More notably, it appears likely that the pattern will shift from January 20th onwards which could support continued moisture but less frequency (i.e no harvest or operational impacts lingering into February). This keeps the risk level relatively low for now.
Southern Brazil (SP, MS, RP, SC, RS): Concern Level 2/5 → | The overall forecast remains quite favorable in this general region. Recent soil moisture data and ground observations suggest near normal or slightly wetter than normal conditions. Precipitation becomes less frequent with more breaks in the rain followed by additional moisture will keep the risk level relatively low here for the next 14 days.
An updated South American Weather Forecast was posted on our site this morning.
To view the full report, follow this link: Blue Line Futures - South American Weather Dashboard.
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