Grain Markets Surge Higher to Start the Week

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Corn

Friday’s Recap
Friday’s Corn market was sharply lower over a sizable trading range, with the March contract lower by 8’6, or 1.90%, to 450’6, a one week low. Across all maturities, the session saw 334,791 contracts done, with March volume coming in at 199,340. Total open interest decreased 10,143, or 0.61%, to 1,657,915. March shed 17,048 (2.29%), finishing at 726,792.

Technicals
Corn futures were under heavy pressure on Friday but are bouncing back to start the first full week of trade in what seems like a lifetime. Dryness in parts of South America coupled with broad strength in commodities following friendly tariff talk have provided the tailwind this morning. Resistance from 459-460 remains intact. A breakout and close above that pocket and we could see a push higher with the next significant upside objective coming in from 470-471 1/2.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 459-460***, 470-471 1/2****
Pivot: 449 3/4 – 452 1/4
Support:437 1/2-440***, 425 1/2-428***

Popular Options
Option trading centered around the March 460 calls with 10,272 changing hands and the March 430 puts with volume of 6,321. Calls with the most open interest are the July 500 strike (43,303), and for the puts are the March 430 strike (27,865).

Volatility Update
As measured by CVL, implied volatility ended the day slightly lower, dropping 0.082 to finish at a one week low of 18.18. The 30-day historical volatility closed the session even on the day nan% to nan%. The CVL Skew was sharply lower with the 30-day dropping 0.44, closing the day at a one week low of 0.44.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 12.30.24)

Below is a look at historical price averages for March corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
(Updated on 12.31.24)

Managed Money increased their net long position by 1,532 contracts from December 17th to December 24th, expanding their net long position to 160,947 contracts.

Wheat

Friday’s Recap
March Wheat futures finished at a contract low of 529’2 Friday, down by 16’4 or 3.02%. Combined volume came in at a one month high of 145,044, with March seeing a heavy 87,535 traded. Overall open interest finished the day at a contract high of 475,534, higher by 11,579, or 2.50%. March open interest added 6,550 (2.52%), to 266,581.

Technicals
Wheat futures got taken to the woodshed on Friday, making new contract lows and trading back into our support pocket from 520 3/4-529 1/4. The market opened higher Sunday night and is continuing to see strength into the early morning session with prices inching closer to our pivot pocket. A close back above 540-542 would neutralize Friday’s bearish breakdown.

Technical Levels of Importance
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